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000
FXUS61 KCTP 131802
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
202 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Windy & cooler today with frequent gusts over 40 mph
-Up to a few inches of snow accumulating this morning across
 the northern tier mtns
-Partly cloudy with decreasing wind tonight
-Isolated strong/severe t-storms possible late Sunday afternoon
 and evening

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A strong surface low (985 MB) just SE of James Bay and a highly
amplified upper trough from Wrn Quebec to the Delmarva Coast
will team up to bring snow over the northern mountains of PA
through the mid morning hours today with light rain throughout
the Valleys of Ncent and NE PA. locally 2-3 inches of snow is
expected across the higher terrain near and to the east of KBFD
in the Northern Mtns, while a slushy coating to one inch of snow
will occur in the valleys near the Route 6 corridor.

The strongest WNW winds at the top of the well-mixed layer of
50-55 kts occur through about 13-14Z today before falling to the
upper 30s this afternoon as the aforementioned sfc low moves NNE
and the tight llvl p-gradient relaxes just a little.

Forecast model soundings indicate about a 10-hour period of
clearing from roughly 18Z today through 04Z Sunday.

Expanded the previous Wind Advisory through our eastern zones
as the relatively deep boundary layer taps some 40+ Kt momentum
from the 4-5 kft agl layer and transports is to the ground. The
advisory is in effect until 22Z today.

Otherwise, enjoy the sun this afternoon since it`ll help to warm
the unseasonably chilly temps in the low to mid 40s north, and
upper 40s to mid 50s across the Central Mtns and Susq Valley.

It will be a chilly start to the weekend with daybreak temps in
the low 30s to mid 40s with a wind chill in the upper 20s to mid
30s across the Northern Mtns and 40s to low 50s in most other
places throughout Central and Southern PA.

Afternoon high temps today will range from the low 40s (north) to
mid 50s in Southern Valleys, or 5 to 15 degrees below the
historical average for mid April.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast remains consistent with previous for this timeframe as
conditions trend from clear to partly cloud tonight before
POPs ramp up from northwest to southeast ahead of a cold front
pushing southeast from the Great Lakes.

SPC has placed all of CPA in a SLGT, fully surrounded by a MRGL
risk (levels 1 and 2 out of 4) with isolated strong to severe
t-storms possible mainly in the late afternoon and evening.

Showers should accompany the front as it sinks southward across
the area later Sunday evening into Sunday night before pushing
south of the MD line by Monday morning. High pressure builds in
for the start of next week bringing fair weather and pleasant
temperatures.

After a noticeable cooldown Fri-Sat, expect a nice warm up to
end the weekend and begin next week with highs rebounding
into the 60-75F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An unsettled pattern will return at the beginning of the long
term as upper-level ridging breaks down, allowing for a warm
front to lift over the area. Warm advection will allow for rain
before scattered showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday evening
with an associated cold frontal passage. Showers look likely to
continue into the end of the week although coverage will be
more scattered in nature with some spread in deterministic
guidance at this time. Have capped PoPs in the 30-50% range at
this time until more agreement. Friday, some chance of drying
out emerges across mainly E PA with upslope potential continuing
due to enhanced westerly flow into the Alleghenies during this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Westerly winds gusting up to 40 kts across southern PA with
gusts up to 35 kts across the northern tier will continue for
the next couple hours before decreasing into overnight. VFR
conditions continue everywhere except BFD, where cigs are slowly
lifting but remain sub-VFR. Clearing skies are expected
overnight across much of the area, with widespread VFR conds
expected through at least 12Z Sunday.

Low level wind shear seems probable across western airfields
tonight for several hours. Chances for LLWS decrease after
daybreak, with winds increasing into the late morning and
afternoon hours, although not as gusty as today (Saturday).

Towards the end of the TAF period (after ~16Z Sunday) low
ceilings will begin to fill in across central PA as SHRA moves
into the area with TSRA probable (> 60%). Stronger wind gusts
will be likely in strong-to-severe thunderstorms, with damaging
wind gusts possible. Given this is out of the TAF period and
confidence on impacts at specific airfields is low, have just
began to signal lowering cigs towards the end of the 18Z TAF
package.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR AM, Restrictions in PM SHRA/TSRA. Strong winds
possible in strongest thunderstorms.

Mon-Tue...Predominantly VFR.

Tue PM...Thickening clouds, light rain and possible
restrictions developing.

Wed-Thu...SHRA/PM TSRA with brief restrictions expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Dangelo/NPB
AVIATION...Banghoff/NPB