Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 272149
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
349 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Upper low evident along the colorado/kansas border this afternoon
with scattered showers and a few storms moving generally southward
over much of the CWA. This activity expected to diminish this
evening as the surface air mass cools and instability decreases.

The upper low will begin to accelerate northeast into the northern
plains later tonight and Saturday as another upper shortwave
moves into the Pacific NW. A weak front will move into central WY
during the day Saturday and with modest afternoon instability
should see widely scattered showers and a few storms once again...
most concentrated around the mountains. Activity will diminish in
the evening before returning again Sunday afternoon as the overall
pattern changes little. Severe storms not expected either day as
shear and instability remain rather modest. CAPE values Saturday
around 500J/kg then about 500-1000J/kg Sunday with surface
temperatures a little warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

A slow moving upper level trough will impact the forecast
area Monday through at least Wednesday, bringing a chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of the area on Monday
and then cooler temps and a more isolated threat especially in
the higher elevations through midweek. A high amplitude ridge
will then build over the intermountain west on Thursday, starting
a warming and drying trend. With the cooler temps in place
initially, still think that snowmelt rates will remain low to
moderate through middle of next week before starting to increase
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

A band of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms extends from
near KCDR down through KIBM at this hour, with some activity
developing over the mountains of southeast Wyoming as well.
Expect this activity to become more widespread through the
afternoon with MVFR visibilities possible in thunderstorms.
Activity should diminish after sunset although marginal MVFR cigs
may fill in through the evening at KCYS and KLAR as winds weaken
within high boundary layer moisture. Otherwise, conditions tonight
should remain quiet. Winds will shift to the west and become gusty
at times along and west of the Laramie Range on Saturday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

No concerns seen into early next week with non-critical fuels and
weather conditions expected to persist. there will be scattered
showers and thunderstorms mostly in the afternoons and evenings
into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Reservoir releases will continue to drive the river flooding
across the lower North Platte River in the weeks ahead. Elsewhere
into the mountains of southeast Wyoming, snow melt will continue
at a relatively slow and steady pace through the middle of next
week given the expected diurnal temperatures trends. Therefore,
river levels should remain fairly steady or slightly decrease
through mid week, and thus the overall risk for flooding on the
upper North Platte and Little Snake rivers is low. By the end of
next week however, warmer weather is looking more likely with
increases in snow melt a good bet.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...SML/RJM



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