Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 240551
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1051 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

LET THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
EXPIRE ON TIME AS WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW CRITERIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

CURRENTLY...1035MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A 1003MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA. STRONG GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND REPORTS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE STILL
REPORTING WIND GUSTS OVER 45MPH...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF
VANCOUVER BRITISH CLIMB WITH SURFACE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST OF
WASHINGTON STATE.

LOOK FOR WINDS TO EASE THIS EVENING FOR A BRIEF TIME OVERNIGHT.
GFS 700MB WINDS ONLY 25-30KTS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT...BUT THEN THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE.

BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE BEHIND THIS AXIS. BY
18Z...GFS 700MB WINDS CRANKING UP TO 45-50KTS OVER THE ARLINGTON
AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AREAS. 12Z WRKHGT PRODUCT SHOWS 850/700MB
CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENTS OFF THE NAM INCREASING TO 60MTRS
AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z THURSDAY. WENT WITH A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS (ARLINGTON/BORDEAUX AND SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE) BASED OFF THIS INFORMATION AND WILL ISSUE WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

MODELS COMING INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CHRISTMAS DAY
SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TRACKING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
4 CORNERS AREA WITH PRECIP BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
WYOMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD SNOW FALLING ACROSS WYOMING...EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY 00Z. ECMWF...NAM...SREF AND GFS ALL
PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS. LATER SHIFTS WILL CERTAINLY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WINTER HEADLINES. THIS EVENT
THOUGH...DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE A LOT OF WINDS WITH IT...SO THAT
MAY BE GOOD FOR TRAVELERS ACROSS THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING IN A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE PATTERN. SNOW SHOULD BE
MAINLY LIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT NOT ALL THAT STRONG BUT SEVERAL
INCHES STILL LOOKING A GOOD BET OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE
TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PRETTY COLD ON FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY LOOKING
MAINLY DRY WITH RETURN FLOW ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF A WARMUP THOUGH
STILL CHILLY. NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY
AND SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE MTNS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR. COLD
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY SOME
SCT-BKN CIRRUS OVERHEAD. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT...AND WILL SPREAD TO THE
EASTERN WYOMING PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
ARE KTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING AFTER SUNSET. STRONG
WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS
TO +60MPH AT OUR WIND PRONE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEGINNING
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AN
ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



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