713
FNUS28 KWNS 032103
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning
late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The
greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to
southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern
High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the
evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor
imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the
inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching
the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to
mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple
days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather
risk.

...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of
TX/CO...
Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave
will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies
on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase
across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM.
Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph
winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be
reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels
across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon,
dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure
finer fuels by Sunday.

Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on
Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection
of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support
strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies.
This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH
common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the
High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern
NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds
are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving
rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after
a few hours.

Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies
D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow
regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values
in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both
days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical
risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect
where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest
signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be
refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus.
Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM,
but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather
potential compared to previous days.

..Moore.. 05/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$