451
ACUS48 KWNS 110904
SWOD48
SPC AC 110903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0403 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is expected to extend from the Mid MS Valley
through the Lower MS Valley early D4/Tuesday before then gradually
progressing eastward through the TN Valley and MS/AL throughout the
day. This wave is then forecast to continue progressing eastward
through GA, northern FL, and Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday. Farther
west, another southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move
across northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on D5/Wednesday,
continuing eastward through the Lower MS Valley on D6/Thursday.

Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on
D4/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place
ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, there is some chance
the better low-level moisture and buoyancy will remain displaced
south of the better forcing as a result from either thunderstorm
development along the coast late Monday night/early Tuesday morning
or an overturning of the airmass by a convective line. This
uncertainty limits predictability.

Low-level moisture is forecast to advect back northward across the
southern Plain on D5/Wednesday ahead of the southern-stream
shortwave trough mentioned above. Thunderstorms are possible from
the TX Panhandle into the Edwards Plateau as ascent attendant to
this wave interacts with this moisture and buoyancy. However,
vertical shear is currently expected to be fairly modest across much
of the region, with the strongest shear expected farther south where
convective evolution is less certain. Uncertainty regarding severe
coverage is too high to highlight any areas with this outlook.

Spread within the guidance increases after D5/Wednesday, with split
flow contributing to low-predictability. Even so, the persistence of
favorable low-level moisture and buoyancy from TX across the
Southeast states suggest some severe potential could materialize
from mid-week through the weekend.

..Mosier.. 05/11/2024