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000
FNUS73 KDLH 221140
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Plouff Creek Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
640 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on April 22.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Partly sunny skies through high clouds will increase and become
mostly cloudy this afternoon. Mixing heights this afternoon will
be around 5400-5800 ft. The deeper mixing will lead to min RH
dropping to around 28 percent, but could drop to as low as 25
percent today. Scattered to widespread rain showers arrive late
this afternoon and evening. Expect southwest winds this morning to
become breezy to strong late this morning through afternoon ahead
of an approaching weak cold front. 20 ft wind gusts increase to
18 to 21 mph before weakening and turning light this evening.
Smoke dispersal will be excellent this afternoon. Expect winds to
shift to westerly after 2200 this evening as the cold front moves
through. Expect a brief break in the rain showers late this
evening into early tonight following the cold frontal passage.
Winds shifting to north-northeast on Tuesday as an Alberta
Clipper system moves into the area.

Scattered rain showers (40 percent chance) will continue on
Tuesday, ending Tuesday afternoon. Some light snow may even
briefly mix in, but no accumulations of snow are expected.
Northerly gusts reach to 17-20 mph, but min RH only drops into the
mid 40s Tuesday afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    around 20 mph.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 25 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (109000-126900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                    CHC
Weather type....                    RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   10  10  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............57  58  59  60  60  59
RH..............28  28  28  28  29  33
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..11  11  11  11  11  10
20 FT wind gust.19  20  20  20  19  18
Mix hgt (kft)...5.0 5.2 4.8 5.2 5.5 5.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.25  26  26  26  26  25
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/1000109 120 111 119 127 111

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Rain showers
                    likely in the evening, then chance of rain
                    showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 6 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL decreasing to 1000 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 21 mph shifting to the west 9
                    to 13 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (55700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to fair
                    (5100-15300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE       CHANCE       S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40           40           20
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............58           47           43
RH..............36           71           76
20 FT wind......SW 9G16      W 6G12       W 6G14
Mix hgt (ft)....3100         900          600
Transport wind..SW 21        W 13         W 10
Haines index....5            4            4
SDspl kt-ft/100056           10           6

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning. Chance of snow
                    showers late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 43.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph increasing to 10 to 12 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 4000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 13 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 14 to 21 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (6400-21600 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (48700-60000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.06 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE       CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR       SNSHWR       NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30           40           10
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............38           36           38
RH..............85           75           50
20 FT wind......NW 7G12      N 11G19      N 11G19
Mix hgt (ft)....600          1800         3100
Transport wind..NW 12        NE 17        NE 21
Haines index....4            3            3
SDspl kt-ft/10006            26           55

$$
Forecaster...Cory
Requested by...Patrick C Johnson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411696.0/DLH
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL patrick.c.johnson@usda.gov