734
FXUS63 KDTX 031946
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
346 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A broken line of showers will slowly track east across the area this
  evening, with a few thunderstorms possible. Severe weather is not
  anticipated.

- High pressure fills in Saturday supporting mainly dry conditions
  ahead of the next weak cold front to bring showers and a few thunderstorms
  to SE MI early Sunday morning.

- Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high
  temperatures in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Broken line of showers currently extends from roughly Saginaw to
Coldwater, with no observed lightning activity at issuance.
Instability has been the main limiting factor thus far, with MLCAPE
holding aob 250 J/kg and observed temperatures generally in the mid
to upper 60s. Pockets of sunshine ahead of the line may increase
instability enough through the evening to support a few embedded
thunderstorms, but for now storm tops have struggled to even reach
the freezing level. Slow eastward progression of the line (15-20
mph) and waning instability after 00z with loss of diurnal heating
may prevent the line from even getting to easternmost portions of the
cwa.

Post-frontal subsidence introduces a deep layer of static stability
to the column overnight, most prominent near the Tri Cities and
Thumb. In these locations, patchy fog is expected especially as
onshore flow emerges from Lake Huron. Elsewhere, weaker inversion and
poor decoupling signal suggest stratus or more localized fog
development Saturday morning. Otherwise, a drier day is in store
Saturday for SE MI. Upstream, a surface low lifts toward Lake
Superior which effectively draws the theta-e axis back into lower
Michigan by Saturday afternoon which boosts temperatures into the mid
70s. The boost to boundary layer conditions will be enough to build
surface-based instability, but any convective initiation will depend
on localized convergence or lake breezes. So at this point, just a
stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible Saturday afternoon.

Broader convective coverage is expected early Sunday morning as the
surface low sweeps another cold front across the cwa. Persistent
lack of mid-upper level jet support and modest elevated instability
suggest showers and a few thunderstorms to be possible Sunday
morning before clearing out by mid-day. Mid-level ridging then holds
steady through middle of next week ahead of a strong Pacific
disturbance which will be the next opportunity for widespread
precipitation. High temperatures will remain comfortably in the 70s
as an open Gulf and southwest flow keep conditions above average for
early May standards.

&&

.MARINE...

A line of showers will continue to work east across the central
Great Lakes this afternoon as a weak cold front pushes through.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but severe storms are not
expected. Light northeast wind will occur behind the front tonight
with mainly dry conditions as a localized area of high pressure
builds in. Will monitor observational trends over Lake Huron where
conditions may be favorable for areas of dense marine fog to form
overnight into Saturday morning. Winds then gradually organize out
of the southeast on Saturday as the high departs east. Southerly
winds up to 20 knots develop Saturday night ahead of the next cold
front that will sweep through on Sunday. Scattered showers and
storms will accompany the front with winds turning northwesterly
behind it Sunday afternoon. High pressure then builds in to bring
quiet marine conditions for the early work week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

AVIATION...

A cold front on pace to advance from northwest to southeast across
southeast Michigan mid afternoon through early evening. This front
may ofer a modest focus for convective shower development during
this time. While an isolated thunderstorm remains possible, the
potential appears too limited to highlight given lack of greater
instability. Cloud base generally at VFR within the pre-frontal
environment, with evidence upstream for ceiling height to lower with
time toward MVFR as low level moisture increases in the wake of the
front this evening. Some degree of low cloud development and
maintenance with an accompanying reduction in visibility expected
overnight. Forecast will continue to highlight lower MVFR to IFR
restrictions through the early-mid morning hours.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Very low potential for a thunderstorm to
develop between 21z and 01z. Limited instability precludes a mention
in the forecast at this time.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms 21z-01z

* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less through this evening. Medium
  tonight.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......TF
AVIATION.....MR


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