Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
335 ACUS03 KWNS 090729 SWODY3 SPC AC 090728 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of west Texas. ...West Texas... A closed upper low should move eastward across the Four Corners region on Saturday while gradually transitioning to an open wave. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow should remain over parts of northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a stalled front draped generally west to east across TX may slowly lift northward as a warm front, especially Saturday night. A rich/moist low-level airmass will reside south of this front, with modest low-level east-southeasterly flow forecast across parts of west into south-central TX. Although large-scale ascent appears generally weak/nebulous, low-level upslope flow over the terrain of west TX may help initiate thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon/evening. Steepening mid-level lapse rates with adequate buoyancy for sustained updrafts, in tandem with strong deep-layer shear, should support some threat for organized thunderstorms. Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores across parts of west TX, where greater instability is currently anticipated. Elevated convection may occur across a larger portion of the southern Plains to the north of the front, but weaker instability with northward/eastward extent across TX should tend to limit the overall severe hail threat. ..Gleason.. 05/09/2024 $$