364
FXUS64 KEPZ 021150
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
550 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

A very warm week ahead with breezy to windy afternoons each day.
High temperatures will remain around 5 to 8 degrees above normal
over this weekend and into the beginning of next week. Afternoon
winds will pick up each day through this period, with Sunday
through Wednesday seeing the strongest winds. With these winds
will come critical fire conditions also.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Not a lot of variance this week as the main narrative is above
normal temperatures, breezy to windy afternoons and elevated to
critical fire conditions. In the short term, satellite and obs
show night time dryline a bit further east than 24 hours ago,
extending from about Marfa-Carlsbad and then NNE over far eastern
New Mexico. The line has made some minimum movement west early
this morning, but should remain well east of the CWA. Aloft, a
weak short wave extending from eastern Colorado to SW Arizona will
push through this afternoon, with just a few high clouds.

Otherwise continued dry west flow aloft through Saturday will keep
skies clear with just typical late spring afternoon breezes.
Models continue to show short wave sweeping across the central
Rockies and out over the central Plains Friday evening which will
allow back door cool front southward down the Front Range and
eventually pushing the dry-line into the far eastern CWA Friday
night and Saturday. Models trending less west push with the
consensus showing the dry-line remaining in the eastern CWA, not
even reaching the Rio Grande Valley. Left low POPs for
thunderstorms in for Hudspeth and Otero Counties, but that may be
too optimistic.

Next system to watch moves in from the Pacific, over the Great
Basin by Sunday. This will increase winds from Sunday on through
the end of the forecast period (Wednesday). Strong lee-side low
develops Sunday, but is much further north than usual favorable
spot (far SE Colorado). This low does reform more in the favorable
area Monday and Tuesday, but is not near as deep. Hence winds
Sunday through Wednesday will be in the 20-30 mph range with gusts
40-45 mph. Shouldn`t be an issue with advisories, but fire
conditions worsen and will approach and probably exceed RFW
conditions each of these afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions through the period, with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds
west/northwest AOB 8 knots this morning, becoming west 10-15G25
knots after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Elevated fire conditions expected the remainder of the this week,
with conditions likely becoming critical by Sunday into the first
half of next week. Typical late Spring breezes, combined with
very low humidity, will bring about elevated fire conditions
today through Saturday. A brief intrusion from a back door cool
front/dryline will move into the Sacramento Mtns Friday night and
Saturday for a temporary wind shift to the east/northeast. This
could also allow some afternoon cloud buildups Saturday.

These very low humidity levels will continue Sunday through
Tuesday, but afternoon winds will also become stronger, likely
resulting in RFW conditions each afternoon. Overnight recovery
each night after Sunday will also remain poor, especially over the
lowlands.

Min RHs: Lowlands 6-10% through Tuesday. Mountains 9-18% through
Tuesday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  89  60  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            84  54  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               87  54  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               86  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               65  39  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    86  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              78  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   87  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                84  48  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       87  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                88  48  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             90  52  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               81  53  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   88  56  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             87  55  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           88  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            86  47  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    88  48  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 86  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                86  50  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  79  45  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                76  43  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 74  41  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  79  44  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                85  48  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                86  46  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             79  41  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   81  44  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    84  38  83  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  36  80  37 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  81  47  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   85  48  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  85  51  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           84  48  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               78  48  79  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner