006
FXUS64 KEPZ 300530
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1130 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Warm and breezy conditions are expected the next seven days with
Wednesday the breeziest day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Zonal flow is in place over the Desert SW with a weak lee trough
over NE NM. We will see more of the same tomorrow though with a
modest increase in winds thanks to the low over NE NM deepening a
few mb. Winds increase further as the trough sharpens over the
Western CONUS. The parent low is well to our north as is the main
jet; thus, winds will only become breezy for Wednesday. The main
impact will be elevated to near critical fire concerns. That
trough passes and we go from quasi-zonal flow to SW`LY flow aloft
by this weekend. This will continue the pattern of warm and breezy
afternoons with little change in day-to-day weather. The dryline
tries to retreat into our CWA starting Saturday. The NBM still
has some low POPs across the far east, likely an artifact of
earlier runs. We are within the time of year when models will try
and bring the dryline through the CWA, but usually does not
manifest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Other than gusty
W-SW winds up to 20kts during the afternoon/early evening hours on
Tuesday, winds will be light AOB 9kts. Mainly SKC expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Very dry conditions will continue through the period with
afternoon RH values falling into the single digits. This pattern
will foster elevated fire concerns with a bit more heightened
threat on Wednesday. Tuesday winds top out 10 to 15 MPH, but winds
increase to the 17 to 22 MPH range on Wednesday. This will place
some areas into critical fire concerns, especially considering
continually drying fuels. The areas appear to be too localized to
warrant a fire weather watch / red flag warning, so no headlines
will be issued with this update. We do plan on issuing a new
experimental special weather statement tomorrow to alert our
interests of the heightened concern that does not quite meet red
flag criteria. Winds decrease for Thursday bringing all areas back
below critical thresholds with a further decrease on Friday.
Breezy conditions are anticipated for this weekend, but at this
time, appear to be below critical thresholds for wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  59  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            54  85  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               53  89  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               51  85  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               41  62  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    52  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              48  77  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   48  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                48  84  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       58  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                47  90  49  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             53  91  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               54  81  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   53  89  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             50  85  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            48  86  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    48  88  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 53  87  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                51  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  45  76  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                44  73  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 41  72  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  44  79  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                48  84  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                46  85  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             43  78  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   44  80  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  84  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               48  79  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  48  80  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   48  85  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  49  85  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           49  85  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               50  79  49  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher