220
FXUS64 KEPZ 280525
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1125 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

After Saturday`s strong winds, the region will see some relief
from the stronger winds for much of the week ahead as the storm
track lifts north and our region comes under a deep and dry west
flow pattern. This will mean day to day warming of temperatures to
well above normal, dry conditions with plenty of sunshine, and
lighter winds, despite occasionally breezy afternoon conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

At 19Z watching the effects of our latest upper level storm
system, with the upper trough axis passing over our western
zones, and a Pacific front between LSB and DMN, pushing east. We
have seen some very light showers over the Lordsburg Playa that
kicked up dust with strong microburst winds in the 55-65 mph
range. Elsewhere, the strong winds expected are spooling up with
areawide gusts in the 30-40 mph range. We expect those to creep up
a bit more through the afternoon as the system passes almost
overhead, and the fropa passes LRU and ELP.

This system will cross the Rockies overnight, and be to our east,
in the S and Central Plains by early morning. This will place our
region on the backside of this open system, with no backwash, and
a deep dry NW flow over the region. This will keep our temperature
rebound, from today`s cooler conditions, a bit moderated, but we
will warm back to seasonal normals for Sunday. We will still have
a bit of low level pressure gradient, so still expecting breezy
WNW to NW winds across the region in the 15-25 mph range, well
below any wind headline threshold. Skies should be dry and mostly
clear.

Monday through Thursday/Friday the synoptic flow aloft morphs
from NW to W to SW, as we see a slow transition from ridge to our
west, to flat ridge overhead, to zonal flow, to passing weak
shallow Pacific trough. Through this period our weather conditions
will be largely uneventful, with day to day warming, light to
moderate winds, with afternoon breezy conditions at most, no
precipitation, and plenty of sunshine. Winds will be lighter early
week, and slowly trend a bit more breezy each day after Tuesday.

Friday into Saturday, a Pacific trough passes well to our north
with no immediate, or significant, weather effects. However, the
GFS does indicate a surface front pushing S and SW down the
Central into Southern Plains along the Front Range. At this time
the model does push this feature west into our region. This would
mean a dryline intrusion into our SACs, Hudsepth, and Otero
lowlands. NBM is seeing this and adding some far east zone POPS
for our Friday aftn/eve into SAT time periods for those areas. We
will watch this for necessary adjustments through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 954 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW150-SCT250. The winds will be generally
light AOB 10 kts and out from the Northwest through 17Z. The winds
will then become breezy (10 to 15 kts) with gusts up to 25 kts
and out from the west thereafter until 01Z. There will be no
reduction in the VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

After Saturday`s Critical fire weather conditions, with a passing
Pacific trough/front, conditions will moderate a bit, due to
lighter winds. However, this is the Spring season, and well into
Fire Season, with continued typical conditions, keeping fire
weather somewhat elevated. The missing piece for critical will be
the winds for most areas, for most of the week. Wind speeds will
fall short of RFW criteria, but conditions will be very dry, as
min RH values fall from the teens into the single-digits for most
afternoons, with poor night recoveries. Temperatures will start
near normal for Sunday, but warm to 5-10 degrees warmer than the
daily averages for the rest of the week. Winds will generally be
west or southwest for the bulk of the week. Fairly light winds to
start the week, but slowly edging stronger towards late week, with
each afternoon seeing some breezy conditions.

Friday into Saturday we see potential for a dryline, front to push
in from the east into the SACs and surrounding lowlands east of
the Rio Grande, that would introduce storm/pcpn chances to those
areas, but most of the region would remain warm, dry, and breezy.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  52  80  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            45  73  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               46  80  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               42  75  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               29  53  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    45  76  49  82 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              39  69  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   42  78  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                41  74  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       49  77  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                42  79  44  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             46  79  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               44  71  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   47  79  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             45  76  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           50  78  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            41  77  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    42  79  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 47  76  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                43  75  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  36  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                34  64  38  70 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 33  63  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  38  69  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                39  75  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                41  76  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             34  70  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   36  71  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    40  76  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               39  71  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  39  71  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   41  75  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  42  75  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           41  76  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               41  71  45  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira