743
FXUS64 KEWX 051954
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
254 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS has been the main focus
for ongoing afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This boundary has
remained relatively stationary through the morning and early
afternoon, generally intersecting the CWA in half from east to west.
Storm development began late morning and is expected to continue
into the late afternoon before peak heating diminishes and the
boundary layer stabilizes. Some storms have been severe with large
hail the main threat, although damaging wind gusts or an isolated
tornado are still possible until storms end. Due to the slow moving
nature of these, heavy rain has also been seen and a few flood
advisories have been issued as some locations have received 1 to 2
inches of rain, up to 4 inches, in a short amount of time. Luckily
where the heaviest rain had fallen storms have finally shifted
slightly south and east out of that heaviest axis of precipitation.
As activity winds down this evening, low level moisture and light
southeasterly flow will contribute to fog development tonight into
Monday morning. Patchy dense fog will be possible, with HREF
probabilities bringing the lowest visibility over the southern
Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. Low ceilings will once
again develop as well which will keep temperatures warm across the
area. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are expected.

Monday will be another humid and warm day for most of South Central
Texas with highs from the mid 80s over the Hill Country where cloud
cover will linger longest to highs in the upper 90s along the Rio
Grande. A few additional light showers or an isolated non-severe
storm are possible in the afternoon in the northeastern portions of
the CWA, but the better forcing will be to the north so only have
about a 20 percent PoP in at this time. Another warm night with
areas of fog expected on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The upper level flow over TX will be nearly zonal for the start of
the long term. The low level flow will continue from the southeast.
Dry weather will continue Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will
climb to well above normal. Record highs are possible along the Rio
Grande Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will move through South
Central Texas Thursday. This will only bring a slight chance for rain
to the northeastern part of the CWA. More significantly it will bring
relief from the heat. Highs behind the front will be 10 to 15 degrees
cooler Friday. The cooler temperatures will continue over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Slow moving showers and thunderstorms have formed across South
Central Texas, first impacting SAT/SSF for the start of the period
with thunderstorms possible at AUS around 19-23Z. Ceilings will
range from MVFR to VFR through the afternoon at all sites. Storm
activity should diminish early this evening with low MVFR/IFR
ceilings expected to return across the entire area tonight into
Monday morning. Fog may also be possible with wet grounds and light
wind, but ceilings my limit any dense fog formation. VFR conditions
return Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  86  72  91 /  20  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  85  72  91 /  20  20  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  88  72  93 /  20  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            69  84  71  90 /  20  20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  97  74 100 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  84  71  89 /  20  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             71  88  71  94 /  20  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  86  72  92 /  20  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  85  74  90 /  20  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  87  72  92 /  20  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           73  89  73  94 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...05
Aviation...27