519
FXUS65 KFGZ 071750
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1050 AM MST Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Windy and dry weather is in store for today, with
seasonable temperatures. Near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions are expected north of the Mogollon Rim. Look for below
average temperatures Wednesday through Friday and above normal
temperatures returning over the weekend. Typical spring- like
breezes will be around after today.

&&

.UPDATE...Winds have increased rapidly this morning and have now
reached advisory to near advisory levels for several locations in
northern and northeastern Arizona. Winds will continue to strengthen
the next few hours, remaining strong throughout the afternoon. A
few slight adjustments were made to the forecast this morning to
account for the earlier than expect onset of strong west to
southwesterly winds. Wind Advisories and Red Flag Warnings are in
effect for several areas from noon through 7 PM MST today. Winds
will begin to subside shortly after sunset, becoming light by
early morning Wednesday. Outside of the winds, the forecast is on
track with dry conditions prevailing and temperatures near average.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /422 AM MST/...The low pressure system currently
centered over the Wyoming/South Dakota border will continue to
keep pressure gradients tight across northern Arizona. As a
result, expect gusty winds throughout the afternoon especially
near, north and east of Flagstaff. Thus, a Wind Advisory remains
in effect from 12 PM MST/1 PM MDT today to 7 PM MST/8 PM MDT this
evening. Winds are not the only focus with this long-wave trough,
but also elevated fire weather concerns. There is a Red Flag
Warning issued for the same timeframe as the Wind Advisory for
many areas along and north of the Little Colorado River Valley.

The elongated low over centered over the northern plains will
gradually sag over northern Arizona Wednesday and Thursday. This
pattern will bring afternoon winds down to typical spring-like
conditions, along with below normal temperatures.

On Friday, models indicate a closed low forming off the backside
of the elongated low and centering around southern Nevada. As this
low wobbles around the Southwest, slight chances for showers look
to return to the forecast, primarily for the Four Corners and
AZ/NM border areas.

There is still uncertainty for how long this closed low will stick
around the region, but strictly looking at the GFS guidance, a
slight ridge will form behind the low by the end of the
weekend/early next week bringing above normal temperatures back to
our forecast. There is still time to solidify the
trajectory/impacts of this low, so check back for updates later in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 07/18Z through Wednesday 08/18Z...VFR with SW-W
winds 15-25 kts with gusts 35-45 kts through 02Z. Local 4SM BLDU
with low CIGS until 01Z. SW winds 5 to 15kts after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 08/18Z through Friday 10/18Z...VFR with SW-W
winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Near seasonable daytime
temperatures. Gusty southwest winds and low RH values will lead to
Critical Fire Weather conditions north and east of the Mogollon Rim
this afternoon. Winds decrease on Wednesday with a slight increase
in RH expected.

Thursday through Saturday...Gradually warming temperatures through
the week. Southwest-west winds 10 to 20 mph on Thursday, becoming
northerly 10 to 20 mph Friday and becoming gustier on Saturday.
Mainly dry conditions expected but a slight chance for showers over
the eastern zones Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-
005-009>015-039-040.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ109-110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon/Konieczny
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff