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000
FXUS64 KFWD 191730
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
...New Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 116 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/
Update:
/Saturday/

With the below discussion handling increasing wet and cool forecast
trends pretty well through tonight (Friday night), the continued
ascent through the entire day Saturday will maintain the wet and
cool conditions across the region. Numerous showers with scattered
/embedded thunderstorms will keep temperatures in check. Any
thunderstorms across North Texas will be driven more by pockets
of mid level lapse rates between 6.5-7 deg C/km well above the
cool and damp surface airmass. However, eastern Central Texas will
be not far removed from the stalling front near the I-10 corridor.
These areas will be several degrees warmer than further north and
thus yielding some weak surface-based instability. This area will
be the most primed to see a few stronger storms with small hail
and gusty winds. However, the emphasis the early weekend period
will be more on the widespread light to moderate rainfall with
locally heavier pockets with embedded thunderstorms.

The primary lifting mechanisms will be a vigorous shortwave
arriving from northeast Mexico and aided by broad, albeit modest
ageostrophic ascent under a relatively weak southern branch jet
max of around 80 kts under 100 kts. The cloudy and rainy
environment defined by gusty northeasterly winds 15 to 20 mph will
make for not an overly pleasant Saturday for those with outdoor
plans or activities. The diurnal range from lows in the 50s (North
TX) and 60s (Central TX) will be on the order of 5 degrees or
less, as afternoon highs only warm to between 55 and 60 degrees
along and north of the I-20 corridor, to between 65 and 70 degrees
across those parts of Central TX along and south of Hwy 84.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/This Evening through Saturday Morning/

The cold front is currently located near a Bonham-Cleburne-Llano
line and will steadily continue south/southeast over the course
of this evening. Some convective development has been observed
over the last couple hours, mainly across western Central Texas
where large hail has been reported. The potential for scattered
showers and storms along the front will continue through this
evening as RAP analysis shows the front moving into an unstable
airmass with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 7-8 degC/km lapse rates.
This parameter space will continue to promote strong to severe
storms capable of hail and damaging winds. There continues to be a
non-zero tornado threat with this activity, but low-level SRH is
generally unfavorable enough to keep this threat on the lower
side. The front will continue to move through the region,
eventually exiting completely near daybreak Friday.

The cold front will eventually stall across South Texas, leaving
our area fully entrenched within the cooler post-frontal airmass.
Cloud cover will stick around as mid- and low-level moisture will
not be completely scoured out behind the boundary. The afternoon
hours should remain relatively dry as a lack of lift should keep
most precipitation from forming until the late evening and
overnight hours. By this time, an upper level shortwave will move
into the Central Plains and spread increased forcing for ascent
overtop the cooler post-frontal airmass. Expect more widespread
showers and storms to blossom across North and Central Texas
during the early morning hours on Saturday. Sounding profiles show
steep lapse rates and enough deep layer shear/MUCAPE to promote
some stronger storms capable of small hail, but the overall severe
threat is low at this time. Instances of heavy rain are also
expected through Saturday morning as PWATs in excess of 1.5" will
be widespread across North and Central Texas.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 236 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/

Rain and occasional elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing
Saturday night across mainly the eastern half of the forecast area
associated with the passage of a shortwave trough. Precipitation
will come to an end Sunday morning as the disturbance heads for
the central Gulf Coast states. Skies will eventually clear from
west to east Sunday afternoon as subsidence strengthens in the
wake of the departing shortwave, allowing for some sunshine by
late afternoon. This should help push temperatures into the 60s
Sunday afternoon. The post-frontal surface ridge will settle
across the region Sunday night. Clear skies, dry air, and light
winds will create ideal radiative cooling conditions, making for a
cool Sunday night with lows in the 40s. Pleasant weather is in
store for Monday as weak ridging builds overhead.

A deepening low over the Great Lakes will help push another cold
front south into the area on Tuesday. The front will stall,
providing a focus for the development of scattered showers and
isolated storms as another shortwave moves through during the mid
to late week period. At this time it looks like the strongest lift
associated with the shortwave (and best rain chances) will be
either Thursday or Friday, depending on which operational model
ends up being the most accurate. Will keep chance to slight
chance POPs in place from late Tuesday through Friday, and narrow
down the time line as better resolution model guidance is
received in the coming days. The upper level pattern will remain
unsettled beyond the extended period as another upper trough
approaches, likely bringing more rain and storm chances next
weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Satellite imagery from early this afternoon continues to show
mostly cloudy skies across the region. As such, CIGs continue to
fluctuate between low VFR and MVFR for all terminals this morning.
The exception has been for KACT where MVFR CIGs have prevailed.
This will remain the case through the rest of the afternoon and
even into the evening hours. Currently CIGs range from around
020-040 for all the DFW airports while Waco Regional remains
around 020-025. Unfortunately, CIGs will only deteriorate as we
move into the evening and overnight hours with more widespread
MVFR CIGs settling in. Around 20/07z, we have introduced some IFR
CIGs at 009 for all the DFW airports with Waco falling to around
007. Otherwise, looks like some showers and maybe some drizzle
will move in for the DFW airports around 20/10z and have
introduced SHRA and VCTS for this time frame. /33/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  57  59  49  65 /   0  80  90  90   0
Waco                69  60  64  49  62 /  10  60  90 100   5
Paris               65  52  56  47  63 /  10  70  90  80   5
Denton              68  54  58  46  63 /   0  80  90  90   0
McKinney            68  55  58  48  64 /   0  80  90  90   0
Dallas              71  57  60  50  65 /   5  80  90  90   0
Terrell             69  56  59  48  63 /   5  80  90 100   5
Corsicana           71  60  64  50  63 /  10  70  90 100   5
Temple              72  62  67  49  62 /  10  40  90  90   0
Mineral Wells       69  55  59  46  64 /   0  80  90  90   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$