Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
347 FXUS65 KGGW 090852 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 252 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered light showers taper off today, then periodic and limited shower/thunderstorm chances return starting on Sunday. - There is high confidence for slightly warmer than normal conditions this weekend into much of next week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The remaining periphery of a low pressure system continues to provide just enough forcing, along with daytime heating today, for scattered sprinkles and light showers to move through until late afternoon. Little or no accumulation will result. A warm up will occur this weekend as a positively tilted ridge builds into the area. Although there is high (70 percent) confidence of dry weather occurring through early next week, ensembles are hinting at isolated showers and thunderstorms occurring from Sunday into early next week from shortwave disturbances and daytime instability. However, upper level moisture will be limited with the pattern presenting no heavy rainfall concerns at this time. CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: High confidence exists on a warming trend this weekend, as deterministic forecast highs in the 70s and lower 80s continue to be on the lower end of the ensemble ranges. There is low confidence on the timing of precipitation probabilities with any measurable amounts late this weekend into next week. -Zanker/Stoinskers && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0830Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR/MVFR DISCUSSION: Ceilings have risen into VFR territory. Scattered sprinkles and light showers will continue through this afternoon before ending, so there is moderate (40 percent) confidence of brief MVFR conditions occurring within rain showers. WINDS: North at 10 to 15 kts, becoming northwest at 5 to 10 kts this evening. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow