107
FXUS63 KGID 062326
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
626 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will exit the area this evening. Despite some scattered
  rain showers, severe thunderstorms are not expected for the
  remainder of the work week.

- Seasonal Temperatures to slightly below normal for the
  remainder of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Tonight:
The line of Thunderstorms will be exiting the forecast area and
moving into eastern Nebraska by around 7pm today.  Winds will be
westerly behind the line of convection. Lows tonight will be in the
40s.

Tuesday - Thursday:
The upper trough will be centered across the
north central part of the CONUS and it will have multiple lobes of
vorticity rotate around it.  Some of these disturbances could bring
some scattered showers and thunderstorms, but moisture will be
pushed out with the activity today. This will keep instability low
and remove the severe potential.  Highs will be in the 60s to low
70s.  Westerly winds on Tuesday will keep temps a bit higher due to
downslope.

The primary upper low will begin to swing southeast across the area
Wednesday which will cause winds to become northwesterly behind a
cold front.  This will drop temperatures a touch for Wednesday and
Thursday into the lower 60s which is a touch below seasonal norms
for early May.

Friday - Monday:
A piece of the upper low will get cut off over the
four corners region by Friday.  As pieces of that energy eject
eastward and another area dives southward just west of the great
lakes, Nebraska will largely sit mild conditions with small rain
shower/thunderstorm potential and near seasonal temperatures.

As we move into the next work week, guidance diverges with how the
cut-off upper low evolves, however, it does look like
Nebraska/Kansas will remain under northwesterly flow aloft which
will likely bring some rain/thunderstorm chances into next week, but
this doesn`t look to be strong to severe at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
switch from the southeast to the southwest by 03z. Winds will
strengthen out of the southwest to west by late morning or early
afternoon. There is a low chance of brief wind shear around 03z
for EAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Schuldt