Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 171655
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1055 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS AND A WEST COAST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL TOP
THE RIDGE AND FLOAT ACROSS THE NORTH AT TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...
SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. TEMPS IN THE FRUIT GROWING AREAS OF WESTERN CO SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. FRIDAY
LOOKS LIKE A WINDIER DAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND TWO PACIFIC
SYSTEMS MOVE INLAND. A PACIFIC TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TO
NORTHEAST UTAH BY LATE IN THE DAY. CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSES SRN CA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THESE TWO SYSTEMS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY LOWER
AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS IN THE MID-LEVELS. DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE LIFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
MARGINAL CAPE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE MORE OF A
THREAT INITIALLY GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND THOUGH THE NAM12 AND EC/GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE. THE
NAM12 IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE IN REGARDS TO PRECIP COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WHILE GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO BE MORE SO. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
WITH SWLY FLOW IN PLACE...SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH LOOK TO BE
FAVORED FOR PRECIP THOUGH CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS TROUGH SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE UPTICK
SATURDAY SO EXPECT SOME ISOLD STORMS TO FIRE. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
AROUND 9 TO 10K FEET SO HIGHER PEAKS CAN EXPECT SOME SNOW WITH
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY...NOT MUCH RESPITE AS MODELS
HIGHLIGHT PRECIP BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS MAINLY DUE TO
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE. AS SUCH...EXPECT MOST
PRECIP TO FALL OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH SOME PRECIP MAY DRIFT
INTO SOME LOWER VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE.

THIS CHANGES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS. WHILE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS PRECIP IS
CONCERNED...ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. UP TO THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE STORM WILL PACK QUITE A
PUNCH AS FAR AS WINDS ARE CONCERNED WITH AN IMPRESSIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JOE



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