Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 251715
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1015 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES DEEP PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE DIVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND AS OF 3AM VERY LIGHT RETURNS
ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE RADAR. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC
OVERRUNNING EVENT...PACKED WITH MOISTURE BUT FAST MOVING AND QUITE
DEPENDENT ON OROGRAPHICS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW. THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WILL SEE SUB-ADVISORY SNOW THIS MORNING BUT
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOCUS ON THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO.
ADDED STEAMBOAT AREA TO ADVISORY FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY MOIST AND IN FAVORABLE WEST FLOW FOR THE TOWN
AND SURROUNDINGS.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

RISING HEIGHTS WILL SHIFT DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING. WARMING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS...
ALTHOUGH LACK OF SNOW COVER IN LOWER VALLEYS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB EACH AFTERNOON BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. FLAT RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTED
NORTH. THIS KEEPS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE A BIT
WITH WITH THE EVOLUTIONS OF A DIGGING SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. ECMWF COMING IN DEEPER AND SLOWER CLOSING A LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE GFS DRAGGING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE LOW
POPS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH BEST POTENTIAL LOOKING TO BE JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL-KRIL-KGUC WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING
BELOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCD. THIS ACTIVITY PEAKS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TODAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
EXCEEDING 45 KTS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG TURBULENCE. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE COMMON NEAR KSBS AND KHDN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005-
     010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC/JOE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.