Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 270915
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS AN ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX KEEPS SHOWERS AND SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON HOWEVER. AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL START DECREASING BY DAYBREAK THOUGH VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN
HIGH...AROUND AN INCH AND CONTINUING TO DECREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL SHIFT
TO THE FRONT RANGE THOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED
OUT...MAINLY FAVORING THE COLORADO SPINE.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AS GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. A FEW CELLS MAY POP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MODELS ARE REALLY
BACKING OFF ON COVERAGE AS STABILITY INCREASES THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY REACHING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE DEVELOPS A POSITIVE TILT IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THE LOW CENTER REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL
PREVENT A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
REGARDLESS...PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DEPICTED A WEAK TROUGH
SWEEPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED MOIST
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FLOW OR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDDAY
FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER ADJACENT
AIRPORTS. FIELDS ALONG AND EAST OF A KCAG-KRIL-KMTJ HAVE A 30 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BRING
CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS THROUGH 02Z/FRI.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.