Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 140204
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
804 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Winds have decreased and relative humidity has recovered above 15
percent. Therefore, allowed the Red Flag Warning expire.

UPDATE Issued at 601 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Winds and relative humidity were slow to drop early this evening
so the Red Flag Warnings have been extended to 8 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Another gorgeous day across the forecast area with plenty of
sunshine and warm temperatures. Winds picked up in the last hour
or so with gusts now reaching 20 to 30 mph. These will continue,
like yesterday, until the early evening hours. After that, clear
skies overnight.

By Saturday morning, a cold front will be just entering
northeastern Utah and will bring a few rain and snow showers to
the eastern Uintas. Minimal qpf and snowfall accumulation is
expected as this front and the atmosphere are so dry. From about
mid-morning towards noon, showers should start falling over the
northern mountains and Flat Tops. Again, not much expected due to
the dryness. Outside of the northern portions of our CWA, a wind
shift from west/southwest to northwest/north will really be the
only indication that a front moved through. We`ll notice it
Saturday night into Sunday morning though as much colder air moves
in. Issued a freeze watch for our final 3 zones that haven`t
achieved a season ending freeze yet. Those zones being the Grand
Valley, Moab, and Canyonlands. Temperatures look to drop into the
upper 20s for those locations while other valleys will drop into
the low to mid 20s and teens for the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

By Sunday morning, high pressure will start to build in from the
southeast and as early as Sunday afternoon, winds will switch
back to being westerly/southwesterly. We all know what that means,
a return to warmer temperatures. This broad area of high pressure
will remain in control for the entire week as temperatures reach
at or just above normal with plenty of sunshine in the forecast.
The next chance for any precipitation looks to be Friday afternoon
and evening but model solution consistency just isn`t there. More
news to come...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A cold front will move through the region overnight tonight
causing elevated winds and a wind shift from westerly to northerly
around 09z through 18z. Little cloud cover will accompany this
front, as the system is extremely dry...with the exception of a
few very light snow showers over the eastern Uintas and
Flattops/Elkhead/Gore/Park Ranges. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at all TAF sites, and winds should begin to subside from
west to east after 18z Saturday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 804 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Critical fire weather conditions are possible again Saturday for
the southern fire zones (CO 207 and 295) due to breezy
conditions combined with dry air (i.e. low RH) and fuels. Will
hold off issuing any highlights for now because it took so long
for winds to materialize today and critical fire conditions only
look to occur for 2 to 3 hours tomorrow.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
     COZ006.

UT...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
     UTZ027-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT



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