Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 300531
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1131 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL AROUND OVER SOUTHERN CO NEAR DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY UP TOWARD ASPEN
AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM. SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NE UT WILL TUG HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR NORTH OVER OUR
AREA. SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. WHILE NOT THE
WETTEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEIR THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND STEERING FLOW PICKS UP
SUNDAY...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY WILL STALL OUT/DECAY NEAR THE WY BORDER MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUES DROP FROM SUNDAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 0.50 INCH NORTH TO 0.75 INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MORE UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROBABLY MORE IN COLORADO THAN EASTERN UT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANGLED FROM NM TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS USUAL THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH.
WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DAY TO DAY AND BE GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING FROM WEST FROM ABOUT 16Z ONWARDS.
CONVECTION WILL START FIRING AROUND 20 TO 21Z WITH MANY TAF SITES
LIKELY SEEING VCTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET BUT IF THEY
DO...THEY WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES UNDER STRONGER CELLS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGJT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.