Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 140334
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
934 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AT 9 PM...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE
NORTH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IS TRACKING INTO
EASTERN UTAH. THE HRRR MODEL IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT OVER THE LA SALS AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU...WHILE THE RAP
AND NAM12 DO NOT. NO POP MENTION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

THE 00Z NAM HOLDS NO SURPRISES. MOISTURE IS VERY MARGINAL INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 0.5INCH/NORTH TO 0.75/SOUTH
RANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERHAPS INCREASING A BIT INTO TUESDAY. ANY
LATE DAY STORMS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WILL PRODUCE
MORE GUSTY WIND THAN SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES RISE 2-5 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND A FEW MORE DEGREES ON
MONDAY FOR SOME LATE SUMMER WARMTH.

MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SOMEWHAT NON DESCRIPT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV
WILL BE OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW AND WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN PRECIP
WATER FROM THE SOUTH BACK INTO THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE...WILL
HAVE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE OFF THE LOWS OF THE
PAST TWO NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EXPECT BASICALLY THE SAME WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AS SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLIFICATION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE
RELATIVELY DRIER DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPS RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE INTERESTING BUT
ALSO LESS CERTAIN...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON
THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE SOMEWHERE OFF
THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. IT APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INITIALLY OVER UT WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER CO ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD
HOLD COVERAGE OF PRECIP AT BAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE VICINITY OF ODILE BEING PULLED NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS AGREEMENT IN TRANSLATING THIS PLUME EASTWARD
OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE ENSEMBLE BLEND
FOR THIS PERIOD. THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS SHOWS NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH LEAVING ODILE BEHIND IN THE PACIFIC AND CLEARING THE
ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING...USHERING IN DRIER NW FLOW FOR
SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF CUTS OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA
COAST FRI NIGHT...ABSORBS THE MOISTURE FROM ODILE AND KEEPS OUR
REGION IN A MOIST...UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW IS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH FAVORS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND A DRIER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FOLLOW NORMAL THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY IMPACT MAY BE GUSTY
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AT KDRO KTEX KMTJ AFTER 21Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...JOE


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