Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 300537
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...
WITH STRONG RIDGING FROM NM TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THU
NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER AZ/NM...AND WILL FLOW OVER OUR SOUTHERN BORDER DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT STILL SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BY
LATE THU NIGHT THE 12Z NAM SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH SOME MOISTURE EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH
AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. IT APPEARS THAT A WEST-EAST DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NM/AZ AND NORTH TO AROUND THE
ABAJO/SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATING
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER.

FOR THE DETAILS: FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FROM AROUND DURANGO TO
SILVERTON EASTWARD. STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE SAN JUANS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE BORDER.

LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THU...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD. I DO EXPECT
THE ACTIVE AREA WILL EXPAND BOTH WEST- AND NORTHWARD AS COMPARED
TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER MOISTURE SPREADS. NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN THIS JUICY
ENVIRONMENT. THE FAR NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO SHIFT
AS FAR WEST AS PREVIOUS RUNS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH BLOCKS IT FROM
THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE HIGH CENTER STAYS OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH IS A MORE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO STREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW...AND IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH CONCERNING
TIMING AND DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY SPREAD
FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM KDRO EASTWARD AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP ISOLATED-SCATTERED
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE SW SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AFT 21Z. KTEX AND KDRO MAY SEE CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 6SM AT TIMES IN -TSRA/TSRA AFT 21Z. SCT TO
NUMEROUS -TSRA WILL CONTINUE BEYOND SUNSET.

NORTH OF THE LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JOE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.