Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 252338
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
738 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cool high pressure will persist through tonight as
high pressure over eastern Canada ridges down our East Coast. Rain
returns on Tuesday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
Low pressure forms along the front over Georgia Wednesday night then
moves northeast taking the front and ending the rain on Thursday.
Clear weather will return by Thursday night, with dry and warmer
conditions going into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 734 PM Monday: Moisture continues to stream into the area in
advance of an upstream shortwave trough swinging across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. It will take time, however, for profiles to
fully saturate owing to substantial dry air entrenched across the
region. High clouds will be the main feature through the evening
with a transition to low stratus overnight. The ongoing forecast
remains on track and only minor tweaks were needed.

Otherwise, stout upper ridging will linger over our region well
into Tuesday as very broad/deep upper trofing gradually spreads
further eastward. The upper trof will eventually push the ridge
axis off the Atlantic Coast by the end of the near-term period
late Tuesday. At the sfc, broad high pressure will linger over
much of the Eastern CONUS today and tonight. On Tuesday, stout
low pressure will lift NE over the western Great Lakes and move
an occluded front over the Southeast. The front will eventually
erode/dissipate whatever is left of the sfc high across our area
by late Tuesday. It will also bring sct to widespread showers to
our area Tuesday afternoon and evening. We`re still not expecting
much in the way of thunder thru tomorrow evening, but most of the
near-term guidance does have minimal amounts of elevated CAPE across
our southern and western zones, so they could see a few lightning
strikes tomorrow aftn/evening. In addition, QPF amounts are still
not expected to be excessive across our area, but our NE Georgia
and upslope zones could see 1 to 2 inches thru 00z Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 PM Monday: Picking up the short term in the middle of an
ongoing system moving through the area. Aloft, a strong upper low
strengthens over the upper Midwest and deep troughing carves out a
path across much of the CONUS. Over the CWA, a cold front is
anticipated to cross the mountains and linger in the eastern zones
of the CWA. At this time, most of the forcing from the lingering
shortwave will be too far north for any severe weather concerns.
Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, moisture filtering in from
SW flow will start to be pinched off as strong high pressure from
Canada seeps into the CWA. Guidance from the GFS and EURO keep
precip chances and moisture concentrated to the far eastern portion
of the area through Wednesday night, before the shortwave is ejected
eastward by a lifting trough. By Thursday, flow turns NW as drier
air moves into the area and the cold front completes its march
across the region. Again, looking at any sort of severe ingredients,
a minimal window for some sbCAPE before in the late afternoon on
Wednesday evening. As mentioned before, the forcing will not be
there to support severe weather development and confidence is very
low for it. QPF response for this system continues to be scaled
back, especially over the western zones as the drier air pushes in
quicker with each guidance run. Rain amounts will be a sharp
gradient with the least in the west and most at the eastern fringe.
Other than rain, winds will start to pick up on Thursday as a strong
area of baroclinity spreads through the area as the trough lifts NE.
Temperatures will be mild with a tick cooler values on Thursday due
to a brief stint of NE surface flow. Overnight should remain well
warm with the lingering moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday: Once the rain lifts out of the area, high
pressure will continue to dominate through the extended period.
Aloft, flow becomes more quasi zonal as a weak ridging pattern sets
up over the majority of the central CONUS. Meanwhile, strong high
pressure starts to amplify over the Gulf and continues to strengthen
through the period. Guidance from the GFS show a steady increase in
PWATs over the weekend and into the beginning of next week as the
high to the south churns in additional moisture. As heights
gradually rise over the weekend, temperatures increase as well to
more spring-like values. The area could see 80s to start next week
with a warm weekend on tap. As for any chances of precip, GFS and
EURO are not in agreement with a potential shortwave passing the
northern portion of the CWA Saturday night into Sunday, with minimal
QPF response. If this occurs, there could be a brief stint of
showers, but nothing substantial or remarkable. As for any fire wx
concerns, RH values could dip into the upper 20 percent range Friday
and Saturday before moisture returns to the region. Winds on Friday
could be elevated, especially across the mountains, but it`s too
early to pinpoint anything too specific.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
heading into the evening before restrictions arrive overnight into
Tuesday as a storm system moves into the area from the west.
Ceilings will gradually lower with all terminals eventually seeing
MVFR with IFR also possible, especially near the end of the TAF
period. A band of showers will also move into the area bringing
associated visibility restrictions. Conditions will remain poor
heading into Tuesday evening with a widespread low deck of IFR
stratus likely with showers lingering into the evening as well.
Winds will be out of the east southeast at 5-12kts with a few gusts
possible.

Outlook: Showers and restrictions will continue into Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. Some of this activity may linger all the
way into Thursday especially along and east of I-77.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-
     017.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/TW
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...TW


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