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000
FXUS61 KGYX 221030
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
630 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and breezy day is expected today. High pressure slides
south of the area Tuesday for warmer and dry conditions. Low
pressure approaches the region Wednesday bringing the next
chance for rain. High pressure then builds in towards the end of
the week. A warming trend can be expected over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM Update...Have increased PoPs in the White Mountains for
the over the next couple of hours as Mt Washington is still
reporting snow showers with some light radar returns upstream.
Otherwise, have made minor tweaks to T/Tds to align with
observed trends.

Previously...

A cold front is currently crossing the forecast area with little
in the way of precipitation except for a few snow showers in the
mountains. A drier air mass will move into the area behind the
front this morning on breezy NW winds. These winds will gust to
around 20-25 mph from mid morning into early afternoon before
relaxing as high pressure builds in. The dry airmass will lead
to elevated fire weather conditions as min RH drops into the
teens to 20 percent range, although winds will be on the
downward trend as these min RH values are realized. Otherwise,
it will be a sunny day with highs ranging from upper 30s near
the Canadian Border to the mid 50s across the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure moving near overhead tonight will lead to clear
skies and light winds bringing favorable radiational cooling.
Have incorporated MOS guidance into the low temperature forecast
with lows dropping below freezing across much of the area with
favorable radiational cooling spots dropping to near 20 degrees.

Highs pressure shifts southeast of the area Tuesday while still
providing mostly fair weather. Southerly winds will increase
through the day and these onshore winds will keep coastal areas
and central Maine in the 50s for highs. Across much of the New
Hampshire highs will climb into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers will begin to enter the region from the northwest late
Tuesday night as a cold front pushes arrives out of Canada.
Deterministic models and ensemble solutions suggest a wave of
low pressure will form along this front on Wednesday. Thermal
profiles suggest rain showers will change to snow showers during
the day over central and northern areas as colder and drier air
arrives behind the front. Scattered snow showers can be expected
in all areas before the precipitation ends Wednesday evening.

There will be a relatively large swing in temperatures
Wednesday. Daytime highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s in
most areas. Wednesday night, overnight lows will fall into the
upper teens to mid 20s by morning in a cold air advection
pattern.

Mostly sunny and dry conditions will end out the work week as
high pressure builds into the region from Canada. There will be
a slight warming trend by Friday with readings mostly in the 50s
with lower 60s over southern New Hampshire.

The large ridge of high pressure will move off the Eastern
Seaboard this weekend allowing a return flow of mild
southwesterly air to the region. Temperatures will continue to
moderate with readings reaching the 60s during the afternoon
hours. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected along the
Midcoast region of Maine as winds may become onshore off of the
chilly Gulf of Maine waters.

Scattered showers can be expected on Sunday as another frontal
system approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will prevail today through Tuesday. NW winds
will gust to 20 kts from this morning through early afternoon
before going light and variable tonight. Southerly winds will
increase Tuesday with gusts approaching 25 kts for coastal TAF
sits and KAUG.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions. The exception will be Tuesday
night through Wednesday evenings. Conditions will lower to IFR
in rain showers ending as snow showers by Wednesday evening in
all areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A cold front crossing the waters this morning will
bring a period of NW winds to 25 kts into early afternoon before
relaxing into tonight as high pressure builds in. High pressure
moves east of the waters Tuesday with southerly winds
approaching 25 kts by Tuesday afternoon.

Long Term...Winds will increase from the south on Tuesday night into
Wednesday potentially reaching SCA levels. Winds switch to the
northwest in a cold air advection pattern Wednesday evening. SCA
thresholds will likely be reaching during that time period and
continue through Thursday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cannon