Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 260346
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1046 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Latest radar imagery shows the continued southeastward progression
of a thin line of showers towards the coast. Any remaining
precipitation should neither be long lived nor heavy, with
rainfall ceasing area wide over the next hour or so. Behind the
line, winds will continue to shift to the northwest and later to
the north as a surface cold front pushes into the area overnight
and into the early hours of tomorrow. This will result in clearing
skies and a surge of drier and cooler air, bringing overnight
lows tonight into the 40s to mid 50s inland and the upper 50s
along the immediate coast.

A calm, cooler, and generally benign weather day is expected
tomorrow as surface high pressure drifts towards the area behind
the passage of the cold front. Expect highs to reach the upper 60s
to low 70s and overnight lows again mainly in the 40s to low 50s
as skies remain generally clear.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

On Wednesday a broad upper trough will push eastward across the
Plains. Despite providing PVA aloft, drier conditions and lower PWs
should largely hinder shower/storm development. Capping does appear
to erode during the afternoon hours, and with a weak surface trough
over Texas, there is a chance we could see some isolated
showers/storms to the northwest around the Brazos Valley. Otherwise,
partly to most cloudy skies should limit afternoon heating, keeping
highs in the upper 60s/mid 70s. Cloud cover should thin during the
evening hours as the aforementioned upper level trough axis enters
the Mississippi River Valley. This will enable stronger radiative
cooling overnight, bringing lows in the 40s/50s heading into
Thursday morning.

An upper level ridge should build over the Rockies/Plains on
Thursday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the mid/lower
Mississippi River Valley will track eastward throughout the day,
bringing onshore flow back to SE Texas by the late afternoon/evening
hours. This should usher in moisture return over the next several
days, with temperatures gradually rising into the weekend. This
warming trend will gain further support aloft as the aforementioned
upper level ridge amplifies across the Plains. Highs this weekend
will be in the mid 70s/mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. PWs
climb above 1.0 inch on Sunday, but subsidence aloft should be
sufficient to suppress rain chances through the end of the week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(03Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Quiet weather anticipated for the 06Z period with VFR prevailing.
Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming primarily
light out of the N/NW during the day Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Northwesterly winds around 10 to 15 knots should develop across the
waters this afternoon as a weak cold front pushes offshore.
Scattered showers and isolated storms can be expected with this weak
frontal passage, tapering off this evening. Seas will be slow to
diminish behind the front, with wave heights ranging from 4 to 9
feet across the Gulf of Mexico. Small craft advisories remain in
effect tonight, but could be extended further into Tuesday morning
for the offshore waters as these high seas persist. Winds shift
northeasterly on Tuesday with seas gradually decreasing through mid-
week. Onshore flow returns by Thursday evening, with seas rising
into the weekend.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  45  66  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
Houston (IAH)  52  74  50  74 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  59  73  58  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...03


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