Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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660 FXUS64 KHUN 021057 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 557 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Another very warm/dry day will be on tap for the Tennessee Valley later today, with high pressure remaining established just east of the area. Ample sunshine and southerly flow will help to push daytime temperatures into the mid to upper 80s in most locations by the afternoon. Although not immediately likely, NBM ensembles are painting about a 10% chance highs at MSL/HSV may exceed the 90 degree mark. Otherwise, late in the day mid/upper clouds will begin to increase from west to east ahead of the weak cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 The aforementioned ridge will begin to break down later tonight into Friday morning as a cold front pushes into area. Southerly flow ahead of the front will help to advect some Gulf moisture back into the region and subsequently medium to high (50-80%) chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will return to the area from the mid/late morning through the evening, before tapering off from west to east. Behind the front, we enter a more zonal pattern that will maintain the warm air mass, but also feature additional shortwaves that will trigger medium chances (40-60%) additional showers and a few thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. In between the showers/storms, breaks of sunshine and southerly flow will keep highs in the low to mid 80s, with lows bottoming out in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Warm and active weather will continue through the long term period. By Sunday, another shortwave will track over the area, resulting in medium chances (50-60%) for showers and storms especially during the afternoon hours. This activity will likely linger through at least the early part of Monday, especially given the warm sectored airmass in place. Broad upper ridging and west/southwesterly flow aloft will keep low chances for rain and thunder in the forecast through the remainder of the long term forecast, primarily north of the TN River where better synoptic forcing will be in place. H85 temps will rise through the work week as strong southwesterly flow continues to support a warming trend, with highs could reach the 90 degree mark by on Wednesday. Overnight lows will warm each night too, beginning in the mid 60s Sunday night rising to the lower 70s Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Will definitely feel more like summer by the middle of the week! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the daytime hours before chances for rain and thunder increase after 06z. Reductions to MVFR cigs and vsbys will be possible within heavier thunderstorms that will persist through the remainder of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...25