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000
FXUS64 KHUN 201507
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1007 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Current radar reflectivity data indicates a line of showers and
embedded thunderstorms progressing eastward across north central
AL (as of this writing). This activity appears to be the remnants
of a broad axis of convection which developed earlier this morning
from northeastern AR into northern Middle TN, in association with
frontal convergence at the 850-mb level. Both CAMs and
regional/global models have had a difficult time recognizing the
presence of this feature, but based on current trends, we have
made a significant upward adjustment to POPs for most of the CWFA
this morning. Although updrafts are rooted above a stable layer at
the surface, 6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates in the 500-600 mb layer and
effective bulk shear of 45-50 knots could result in brief storm
organization, perhaps resulting in more frequent lightning and
small hail.

To the west of our region, another large area of showers and
thunderstorms is currently becoming more organized from
southeastern OK/northeastern TX into the Arklatex. This is
occurring in conjunction with a subtle mid-level trough embedded
in the subtropical jet, and should spread east-northeastward
across the Arklamiss region this afternoon. The leading edge of
this next round of precip will reach western portions of the
forecast area between 18-21Z, with perhaps a lower risk for
thunderstorms, as afternoon storms developing along a stalled cold
front (immediately inland from the central Gulf Coast) may
disrupt the environment locally.

Otherwise, NNE flow will remain in the 10-15 MPH range today,
with occasional gusts of 20-25 MPH. Resultant cold advection and
low clouds will contribute to limited temperature rises, with
highs in the l-m 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Rain chances will increase this evening and especially overnight
in response to the passage of a shortwave trough that will ripple
from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.
Medium to high chances (50-80%) for rain showers and potentially
an isolated thunderstorm or two will be present, especially late
tonight into the early Sunday morning timeframe. Precipitation
will taper off from west to east Sunday morning, but dense cloud
cover and northerly flow will make for a very cool day as highs
will only climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Dry air will
erode cloud cover late in the day into the evening hours and we`ll
be looking at a mostly clear night Sunday night. If winds can
decouple, we could be looking a patchy/areas of frost briefly by
early Monday morning as lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s will
be common. High pressure will build into the area early next week,
promoting mostly clear and dry conditions. In response, a warming
trend will occur as we will warm into the upper 60s on Monday and
the lower 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

High pressure will get squeezed to the southeast mid to late
week, with a couple of weak impulses pushing across the area each
day. However, very limited moisture will keep the forecast dry,
with only scattered to broken bands of cloud cover being the main
impact. Temperatures each day will peak in the low to mid 70s,
with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A pronounced longwave
trough over the western United States will slowly progress
eastward late this week into the weekend. This will be the next
feature to watch as it may bring our next decent chances for
showers/storms by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category for most of
the day and into the early part of the evening hours. Gusty NNE
winds will continue today, between 10-20 kts as a low pressure
system pushes across the region. -SHRA will return late this
evening and overnight as ceilings drop to MVFR levels.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...AMP