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000
FXUS63 KICT 120358
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1058 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler temperatures today, warming trend beyond with temperatures
  near 90 Sunday

* Fire danger concerns today, Saturday, and Monday-Wednesday
  across central KS

* Severe storms possible Monday and Monday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

As of 2pm Thursday afternoon, northwesterly midlevel flow was
present across the central and northern Plains as a shortwave trough
digs across the upper Midwest. A stout surface pressure gradient
remains in place, which continues to yield northerly wind gusts up
to 40 mph. These northerly winds have ushered in slightly cooler
temperatures, when compared to the past few days. As diurnal cooling
ensues and the arrival of a surface ridge axis this evening,
wind speeds will rapidly decrease.

This cool down will be brief as midlevel ridging builds across the
Plains Friday into the weekend with a gradual temperature increase.
Temperatures will return to the 70s Friday, 80s Saturday, and near
90 Sunday. This surge in temperature will of course be accompanied
by gusty south winds up to 35 mph Saturday. A weak surface
trough axis will slide into the area Sunday, shunting the
pressure gradient southeast of the area. This should give a
brief reprieve from gusty winds Sunday afternoon.

Our attention continues to be drawn toward another potent midlevel
trough poised to eject into the Plains early next week. Latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance have trended slightly slower
with the trough passage and more so Monday night. Should these
trends hold, convective initiation may be well-west of the
forecast area with the best storm chances arriving late Monday
night. All of that to say, an environment capable of severe
storms, possibly significant, may emerge Monday evening into
Monday night. Stay tuned for forecast updates over the coming
days. Beyond Monday, the ultimate speed of the trough passage
will play a pivotal role for any storm chances into Tuesday. A
continued slowing trend will increase storm chances Tuesday,
especially across far eastern KS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side
through the next 24 hours.

Currently have northwest flow aloft over the Plains with weak
surface high pressure also extending through the majority of the
Plains. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain
in place through the next 24 hours. Winds will eventually come
around to the southeast by early Fri afternoon but will be much
lighter than they were today(Thursday).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Very high to extreme fire danger will continue into the early
evening hours today for areas west of Interstate 135. An active fire
weather pattern appears likely Saturday and again Monday-
Wednesday as gusty winds overlap dry fuels and warm
temperatures. Latest collaboration with local, state, and
federal fire partners reveal sufficient green up for areas east
of I-135 to limit the threat for significant fire spread.
Therefore, the primary zone for dangerous fire conditions will
focus west of I- 135.

Saturday, Monday-Wednesday: A period of very high to extreme
fire danger is expected as gusty south winds up to 35 mph
overlap afternoon humidity values in the 15-25 percent range
each afternoon. As previously mentioned, the area of most
concern will remain west of I-135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...BMB