Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240529
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1229 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very strong south winds with peak gusts of 50-60 mph on Sunday.

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight
  through early Monday, with a brief transition to snow possible
  over parts of central Kansas on Monday.

- Some storms late tomorrow afternoon or early evening could be
  strong or severe with damaging winds and quarter sized hail
  the primary threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A subtle shortwave trough emerging from the Central High Plains
today may bring a few sprinkles to northern Kansas this afternoon.
As we move into the overnight hours, a strong mid/upper jet over the
Southwest will translate eastward as the upper trough begins to
build over the Central Great Basin and into the Rockies. A strong
LLJ is progged to develop downstream over the Central Plains tonight
with H85 winds of 50-70 knots progged toward morning on Sunday. The
core of the H85 jet may exceed 70 knots during the day on Sunday as
a very strong pressure gradient force is progged to develop over the
area. The ECMWF EFI has values of .8 to .9 for both wind speed and
wind gust with a SOT of 1 for wind gust strongly supporting an
unusually high wind event across the area on Sunday. RAP time/height
X-sections of wind and mixing layer height at point KRSL would
support 55+ knots or 63+ mph during the late morning hours. A high
wind warning will be issued for central and parts of south central
KS with a wind advisory downstream across the Flint Hills and
southeast Kansas. A wind advisory will follow the high wind warning
for all of the area on Sunday night.

Some elevated showers and storms will also be possible late tonight,
especially after 08Z when the LLJ noses into central KS which which
should serve to moisten the H9-H8 levels sufficiently for scattered
elevated storms as large-scale forcing for ascent increases. These
storms may be capable of small hail and some strong wind gusts. Some
elevated showers and storms may be ongoing through much of the
morning hours but by late morning/early afternoon we expect a lull.
Widespread cloud cover in the warm sector will likely dampen any
diurnal rise limiting the low level buoyancy later in the afternoon.

After a brief lull, an eastward moving dryline will become a focus
for additional development during the mid to late afternoon hours.
This dryline will likely be west of our forecast area where new
updrafts are anticipated after 2-3 PM. A slow eastward progression
of the dryline is anticipated with the arrival into our forecast
area after dark. This leads to lower confidence on more robust sfc-
based convection in our forecast area given such meager low-level
moisture progged in the warm sector on Sunday evening. This gives us
low confidence in tornado activity and lower confidence in robust
sfc-based supercells in our forecast area. But given such favorable
wind fields and cyclonically curved hodographs there remains a low
threat for  supercell storms and perhaps a tornado although the
primary threats are expected to be damaging winds and large hail
with steep mid-lvl lapse rates in a high shear/low CAPE
environment.

As the lead wave ejects northeast of the area early on Monday
another pv anomaly will rotate through the base of the trough
elongating it and keeping some threat of a light wintry mix in the
forecast for much of central Kansas on Monday. Pops may need to be
expanded southward for areas mainly west of I-135 where a light
wintry mix will be possible on Monday during the day. There remains
a low probability (20-30%) for light snow accumulations across
portions of central Kansas although the bigger impacts are still
expected to remain north of the forecast area. Large-scale forcing
for subsidence should bring a rapid demise to any lingering light
snow or snow flurries by early Monday evening. Much colder air is
still progged to overspread the area in the wake of this system
with multiple nights of a hard freeze anticipated. Lows in the
teens and 20s will be common across the area early Tue and again
early Wed mornings.

Thu-Sat...rising heights/increasing thickness will support
moderating temperatures and dry weather conditions across the area
late in the week with above normal highs in the 70s returning on Fri
and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Southeast winds will ramp up during the early morning predawn
hours in response strong lee-side pressure falls with a
developing strong nocturnal low level jet leading to low level
wind shear along/west of the I-135 corridor. Strong elevated
low level moisture transport is also expected to result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms toward or just
after sunrise later this morning. This convection will likely
last through the morning along/west of the Flint Hills and may
affect southeast Kansas during the afternoon. Otherwise, strong
south winds will be the main concern along with prevailing MVFR
cigs from the Flint Hills westward across central and south
central Kansas today. There is potential for strong to severe
storms to affect locations along/west of I-135 by early evening.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Very strong southerly winds of 50-60 mph are expected on Sunday.
High relative humidity and multiple rounds of showers and storms
will limit the fire weather threat.

A very high fire danger may return on Thursday for parts of central
Kansas and much of the area on Friday, as relative humidity drops to
25-35% with above normal temperatures and breezy south winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082-091.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082-091.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ052-053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...


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