Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
952 FXUS63 KICT 010528 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1228 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late afternoon evening storms possible along and especially east of I-135. Severe storms likely with any storm that develops along the front. - Evening storms may add to the ongoing flooding issues from the Flint Hills into southeast KS. - Additional storms likely on Wed with severe storms again possible, especially west of I-135. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Water vapor imagery currently shows some shortwave energy lifting across Eastern Nebraska with the main upper trough still back over the Northern Intermountain. At the surface, Pacific front/dryline extends from eastern Nebraska to near KSLN and just northwest of KHUT. Front/dryline will continue tracking east this afternoon and by 21z is expected to extend generally along or just west of I-135. Storms are expected to develop along the boundary generally in the 20-23z time frame. Confidence on the more widespread activity is still higher further north, closer to the better upper dynamics and further away from weak high rises. However, almost all of the CAMs are developing storms in our forecast area, which makes sense given the extreme instability and minimal capping. With an abundance of instability and modest deep layer shear, still looking for supercells with large hail and damaging winds possible. Can`t rule out a brief tornado, given the presence of decent 0-3km CAPE and a sharp boundary, especially if a storm can remain anchored on it for a period of time. As the storms track off to the east this evening, they will be moving into an area that has already seen extreme rainfall the last several days, so flooding would become more likely. So the current flood watch looks on track. Low level jet will increase as the evening hours progress which will impinge on the front as it starts to lay out more east- west. This should lead to continued storm development and potential back-building which may lead to additional flooding, especially over the Flint Hills along and south of Highway 400. Starting to feel more confident that showers and storms will linger across at least south central and southeast KS throughout much of Wed morning as 850-700mb moisture transport persists. In addition, a tight 700mb baroclinic zone will move through during the morning hours which should help showers and storms continue. With CAPE above 850mb in the 1,000-2,000J/KG range, some large hail will remain possible with any of the storms Wed morning. The main question will be if and how many storms develop on the dryline/triple point Wed afternoon/early evening. The model trends have been to push the warm front/dryline further to the southwest with the triple point now expected to be between Pratt and Dodge City where yesterday at this time it looked like it would be west of Great Bend. With the better upper forcing still back to the west and northwest, current thinking is that we will not get numerous storms to develop along it with just a few storms likely. All severe hazards will be possible with any storm that develops along the dryline late Wed afternoon/early evening and will track off the east. So for surfaced based convection Wed, feel areas west of I-135 will have the best chance, generally after 22z as storms move-in from the west. Another round of elevated storms will be possible Wed evening/night as the better upper forcing moves out of the Rockies and into the High Plains. Locations along and north of I-70 will have the best chance to see this activity. Storm chances will remain over the area on Thursday as the front moves back through the forecast area with southeast KS having the only chance for storms on Thu night. By 12z Fri, the upper low will be lifting across the Upper Mississippi Valley with westerly mid and upper flow across the Plains. Meanwhile, the surface boundary is expected to stretch from southern MO into southeast OK, which is where the better storm chances will also be located. We should see a break in storm activity during the day Fri with additional development Fri night as a fast moving impulse slides across Nebraska, which will push another cold front through the forecast area. Storms are expected to be moving off to the east Sat morning with most of Sat dry. However, both ECMWF and GFS still agree on lifting a southern stream impulse out of the Desert Southwest and across the Southern Plains for late Sat night into Sun which may bring a round of showers and storms to mainly southern KS on Sun. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Easterly component surface flow will prevail most of the night in the wake of the convection just south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Elevated southerly return flow will increase toward dawn as the frontal boundary begins to return north as a warm front. This could initiate scattered convection across southern Kansas during the post-sunrise hours later this morning. This is also expected to promote developmental stratus cigs with high confidence on lower end MVFR and possible IFR. Focus for convection should shift northward with the warm front into central Kansas during the afternoon with some development south into the warm sector across south central Kansas, some of which will be severe. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until noon CDT today for KSZ069>072-093>096- 098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...KED