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000
FXUS62 KILM 240137
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
937 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak backdoor front will bring only minor rain chances late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will build in from
the north thereafter but not really bring a cooldown. A warming
trend is then slated for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Not much in the way of changes for the overnight. Much warmer
tonight compared to last night as well mixed boundary layer
keep temperatures within a few degrees of climo, upper 40s to
around 50 in most areas. Fog also will not be an issue with
wind speeds of 5-10 mph overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will shift increasingly offshore through the
period while subtle mid-level ridging is shunted away by a trough
swinging through the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. At this
latitude, we are expecting to see a glancing influence from this
trough with small height falls and weak warm advection ahead of its
associated cold front. With the best forcing for ascent staying to
our north and surface convergence along the front waning as it
becomes oriented increasingly parallel to the flow aloft, only
isolated showers are expected at this time from late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night as it settles southward. While some
hi-res guidance depicts a swath or two of heavier shower activity,
the majority of models keep precip sparse, so will opt to keep PoPs
on the slight-chance side for now, although this may need to be
raised in the future for the northern and western areas of our
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Backdoor cold front will be sagging through the area at the start of
the period. Enough guidance is hinting at small rain chances as this
occurs and after some inter-office collab decided to introduce some
small rain chances. Dry air readily filters in behind this boundary
for a sunny Thursday that will wind up seasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIgh pressure wedged in from the north seemingly can`t decide whether
it wants to retreat or not Friday. Other than the wind forecast
this will have little bearing as solar modification by the
increasingly strong sunshine will offset the weak NE winds for a
seasonably warm afternoon. The surface high finally pulls away to
the north and east over the weekend but the high aloft will be
overhead. This will lead to quiet weather and a gradual warming
trend, temperatures almost 10 degrees above climo by the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR continues across the area with south to southwest winds
gradually increasing ahead of approaching cold front. Front is
weak, but will pinch the gradient enough to make winds gusty
later tonight and Wednesday with potential for gusts around 20
kt. Front will be accompanied by BKN/OVC ceilings and maybe
some light rain although cloud bases will end up between 5k and
10k ft which will limit the amount of rain reaching the surface.

Extended Outlook...Low potential for MVFR Wednesday night.
Potential for MVFR/IFR Thursday and Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday... With high pressure moving offshore, southerly
winds increase tonight and gradually veer through southwesterly
tomorrow ahead of a cold front. Elevated seas due to 2-4 ft easterly
10-sec swells will remain in place while an increasing south to
southwesterly wind wave component builds to 2-4 ft by late Wednesday
afternoon.

Wednesday through Sunday... A backdoor cold front pushes through at
the start of the period turning veering our SW considerably by
Thursday, by which time they will have changed 180 degrees. This
will confuse seas, steepening wave faces and likely making the wind
chop be more prevalent then the easterly swell. The post-frontal
high will remain to our north until Friday and less so Saturday
leading to more gradual veering than the early period FROPA. Winds
will be back to southerly by the period`s end.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM