286
FXUS62 KILM 290536
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
136 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure leads to dry conditions through Monday.
An upper level disturbance will lead to shower and storm chances
Tuesday and Wednesday, a warming trend starting early next week
as the high pushes further offshore. A cold front moves through
late in the week, which brings an increased chance for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Mid level ridging and surface high pressure offshore leads
to basically a persistence forecast. Convective clouds will
dissipate in a few more hours leading to a mostly clear
overnight. Fog is possible again in the wee hours of the
morning more so inland. For Monday although surface dewpoints
are similar to today`s soundings show drier air poised to mix
down thus the cloud forecast is considerably less than todays
observations. Overnight lows will reach the middle 50s with
Mondays highs probably reaching around 80 most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mon night should be mostly clear with cloud cover increasing
towards Tues morning ahead of a shortwave, mostly in the form
of mid/high level clouds early. Offshore high pressure will
shift further from the coast through the day Tues with some
lower clouds associated with isolated showers later in the day.
It looks like a coastal trough forms Wed as the shortwave trough
aloft deepens before nudging offshore by the end of the period.
This will lead to enhanced precip chances Wed with thunder
chances in the afternoon due to some instability. Currently the
area is just in general thunder with ML lapse rates and winds
aloft not supporting much of a wind or hail threat. Sounding
bulk shear values could suggest some storm organization but
otherwise not expecting a severe threat at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The shortwave trough should be offshore Wed night with rain
moving out with it, more surface high pressure approaching due
to a shortwave ridge. It looks like a weak backdoor cold front
may cross over the area Thurs AM but the passage will be dry,
the boundary maybe even becoming diffuse before reaching us. Low
precip chances will be relegated to the afternoon due to a weak
pressure trough inland. Better chances for showers/storms will
come towards the end of the week due to an approaching cold
front and upper level trough. Highs generally in the mid to
upper 80s with cooler conditions towards the end of the week
with the increasing rain chances. Lows generally in the 60s,
again cooler towards the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR continues at all terminals, but as winds drop off during the
next few hours expected periods of MVFR/IFR fog developing at
inland sites. Expect boundary layer winds at coastal terminals
will keep any fog that develops MVFR and very short lived. Any
visibility restrictions will end by 14Z as boundary layer winds
and mixing dissipate any fog. Sea breeze will lead to enhanced
southeast winds for coastal terminals in the afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate. MVFR/IFR visibility
possible each morning around daybreak. Shower/thunderstorm
impacts at all terminals possible Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Conditions across the coastal waters are all
but in summer time mode. Winds maintain a southerly component
in and around ten knots. Similar persistent story for
significant seas with 2-4 feet.

Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions. S/SW winds
10-15 kts become ENE Thur with the passage of a surface
boundary, becoming southerly again Fri. Seas generally 2-3 ft.
Best chances for shower/storms over the waters is Wed with the
passage of a disturbance aloft and low pressure possibly
forming along the coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...SHK/LEW