518
FXUS61 KILN 281956
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
356 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow will keep temperatures well above normal through
tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will start to move into the
area Monday afternoon and continue into Monday night as a cold
front crosses the area. High pressure will build in for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Cumulus across the region will dissipate with loss of heating
leaving just some thin cirrus for tonight. South winds will
diminish early this evening but persist at 5 to 10 mph
overnight. Lows will generally be in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop on Monday afternoon along
a pre-frontal trough. There is some uncertainty how quickly this
activity will move into the forecast area, but it will affect
western counties before the day is through. Along with this
timing uncertainty, there is some question about how unstable it
will be. It seems likely that CAPE will be below 1000 J/kg but
whether it is close to that number or only a few hundreds will
determine whether there will be any strong storms since better
bulk shear will be spreading over the unstable area. Wind would
be the primary concern. Confidence at this stage is rather low
but will keep an eye on it.

Instability will wane in the evening, so the potential for any
stronger storms will end. But an axis of showers and
thunderstorms will progress east through Monday night. There
could be a secondary axis along the actual cold front that
moves in late.

Temperatures will be back in the lower to mid 80s in most
places, although clouds may thicken early enough to keep
readings in the upper 70s west of I-75. Lows will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Guidance has slowed a bit with the exit of the shortwave trough.
Consensus now has the trough axis lingering Tuesday morning, and not
clearing our eastern counties until near midday. Still, we will
likely see a decrease in cloud cover heading into the afternoon with
high temperatures reaching into the low to mid 70s by 4-5 PM.

Westerly to northwesterly winds will briefly visit the Ohio Valley
behind the front Tuesday afternoon into the early evening... then
flow becomes southerly again for Wednesday as warmer than normal
temperatures return. Mid-level heights increase Wednesday as well,
with ridging becoming more amplified on Thursday ahead of the next
digging mid-level trough over the Central Plains.  Though humidity
will not be particularly high on Thursday, temperatures may reach
into the upper 80s based on the NBM mean. Have blended this
direction since the NBM`s calibrated high puts us below the 25th
percentile of the blend`s members.

Precipitation chances will increase Friday with the arrival of the
next frontal system. How quickly this system clears the region is
uncertain based on the latest guidance. For this reason, have
lingered PoPs through the weekend to some degree. Showers will not
be occurring the entire period of course... but there could be a
reinforcing trough pass through the Great Lakes sometime late in the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Southerly winds with gusts at or above 20 kt will continue
through the early part of the period. Winds will decrease to 5
to 10 kt overnight but then increase again on Monday with gusts
at or above 20 kt again.

VFR will persist. Cumulus across the region will dissipate with
the loss of heating. Mid clouds will spread into the region
towards or a bit after 12Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning. IFR ceilings possible late Monday night into
Tuesday morning with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering into
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...