Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 170432
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hard freeze expected both Sunday night and Monday night.
  Precautions should be taken to protect any newly emerged
  sensitive vegetation.

- Next rain chance will hold off until Thursday into Friday
  (30-40%).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A cold front has traversed most of the central/SE IL forecast
area, positioned near I-70 as of 8 PM. It will continue
southeastward, passing Lawrence County and exiting the area by
midnight. Behind the front, northwesterly winds will advect a
cooler air mass in, with lows expected to reach anywhere from 30
in Galesburg to 38 in Lawrenceville. Breezy winds settling down
from current 10-20 mph and higher gusts to around 10 mph will make
for a chilly night. Skies have been clearing behind the front, and
a mostly clear night is on track. No significant updates are
needed this evening as afternoon forecast package is on track with
these features.

37

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A cold front has pushed into the area from the northwest and will
continue pushing southeast across central IL through the rest of
the afternoon and early evening hours. Winds have been gusting the
afternoon gusting to around 40 mph at times. But winds will
dissipate slowing through the evening hours, becoming northwest at
10 mph or so by midnight. With the cooler air ushered in, lows
will dip into the 30s tonight and highs on Sunday will only
rebound into the 40s across much of the area. Expect mostly clear
skies and northwest winds to continue through Sunday night.
However, lows on Sunday night will drop another notch...with lows
expected to the in the 20s across central IL.

Knutsvig

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

After the region experiences northwest flow aloft with an upper
low over Ontario over the weekend, an upper jet diving south on
the backside of the upper low over the Northern Plains will
sharpen the trough over the Midwest and ultimately help push it
east Monday night. This will leave the area in rather quiet
northwest flow aloft for Tuesday and Wednesday with a broad
eastern US trough and western ridge. However, with the passage of
the upper trough a cold front will usher in slightly cooler temps
for Wed-Fri after a brief warm up on Tuesday. Tuesday will start
cool though, with lows in the 20s Tuesday morning before warming
up into the mid 50s to low 60s.

Highlights in this period include a few upper waves that are
expected to pass to the north through the Great Lakes in the NW
flow aloft...along with a southern track wave late in the week
that is expected to stay to the south through the lower MS river
valley. By Thursday, chances increase that one of the upper waves
in the NW flow will move through IL providing a chance (30-40%)
for showers. It`s also not out the question that the system to
the south would clip southern IL with it`s precipitation as well.
Either way, chances of rain increase towards the end of the week.

Knutsvig

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours, with a period of
scattered mid level cloud cover during the daytime Sunday. NW
winds around 10 kts will continue overnight, increasing to around
15-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts by 15Z-18Z, then decreasing to
around 10 kts again after 00Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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