Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 160812
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
312 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High probability (80-100% chance) of wind gusts over 30mph
  everywhere north of I-70 today...with a 50-60% chance of gusts
  greater than 40mph along/north of a Macomb to Bloomington line
  this morning.

- Hard freeze expected both Sunday night and Monday night.
  Precautions should be taken to protect any newly emerged
  sensitive vegetation.

- Next rain chance will hold off until Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Windy and warm conditions will prevail today as a cold front approaches
from the northwest. NAM/GFS forecast soundings show deep-layer
mixing up to 6000-7000ft later today, which will allow higher
momentum air within a 40-50kt 925mb jet to mix to the surface. It
appears peak momentum transfer will occur shortly after the
nocturnal inversion is broken across the northern third of the
KILX CWA after 9am. 00z Mar 16 HREF shows a 50-60% chance of gusts
exceeding 40mph along/north of a Macomb to Bloomington line from
mid-morning into the early afternoon. These initial gusts will
decrease slightly as the day progresses: however, data suggests
widespread gusts of 30-40mph everywhere along/north of I-70
through the afternoon. While mid/high clouds will increase as the
front arrives, partial sunshine and strong SW flow will boost high
temperatures well into the 60s. Readings will drop back into the
middle to upper 50s along/north of a Macomb to Bloomington line
late this afternoon after FROPA. Cold front will settle southward
to the Ohio River, with brisk northwesterly winds this evening
subsiding to less than 10mph overnight. Low temperatures will drop
into the lower to middle 30s...with a few upper 20s northwest of
the Illinois River around Galesburg and Macomb. Thanks to strong
CAA, high temperatures will remain below normal for this time of
year on Sunday...ranging from around 40 north of the I-74 corridor
to the upper 40s south of I-70. In addition, northwesterly winds
gusting 25-30mph will make it feel even chillier.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

As has been advertised the past several days, a Hard Freeze is
anticipated across all of central and southeast Illinois both
Sunday night and Monday night. A 1030mb Canadian high building
southward into the Plains will push a chunk of cold air into the
region...with the GFS showing 1000-500mb thickness values
dropping to 516dm by 12z Monday. While northwesterly winds of
around 10mph will mitigate ideal radiational cooling, am still
expecting lows to drop below 30 degrees across the board. In fact,
the 12z Mar 15 LREF indicates a 40-60% chance of temps dropping
below 25F along/north of a Macomb to Champaign line. As a result,
any newly emerged tender vegetation should be protected in order
to prevent damage. The heart of the cold airmass will be over
central Illinois on Monday, with resulting highs only in the upper
30s/lower 40s. Monday night lows will once again drop below 30
degrees everywhere: however, these readings will likely be
achieved during the evening, followed by steady or slowly rising
temps overnight as SW return flow develops.

Once the Canadian high departs, temperatures will quickly
moderate back above normal into the 50s and lower 60s for the
remainder of the week. The next significant system slated to
impact the area with showers will hold off until Thursday at the
earliest.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as a high
pressure ridge crosses the area overnight followed by a dry cold
front during the afternoon. Winds will be light and variable this
early in the night, but the approaching cold front will bring an
increase in winds from the SW by early morning, becoming gusty by
around 15Z, with gusts 25-35 kts expected for much of the day
afterward. Winds will veer to westerly or possibly NW by 00Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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