870
FXUS63 KJKL 092347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
747 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some showers and perhaps a storm or two are possible at times
  from this afternoon through early next week.

- A cold front passing tonight will usher in cooler temperatures
  from Friday through the weekend, with warming then returning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 746 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2024

Minimal changes needed with the early evening update. Made minor
changes to PoPs based on latest NBM and CONShort trends, but
overall this only made minor edits to timing of precipitation
chances late tonight through mid-afternoon Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 329 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2024

Large scale trough over the Great Lakes continues to have smaller
shortwaves traveling west to east across the Upper Ohio Valley.
One such feature is interacting with a diffuse low pressure
center, stretching roughly from SW OH to central VA, to generate
some really light rain showers embedded within a larger scale
stratocumulus field. So far not seeing much get taller on
satellite imagery. The window for measurable rain chances still is
fairly narrow in space and time. Still looking at far eastern KY
and NE KY with the best chance to measure.

That shortwave passes east, along with the surface low later this
evening. Another quick-moving disturbance will pass through OH
toward daybreak Friday. Expect some low clouds to swipe across our
area, especially along and just ahead of the cold front that will
pull our temperatures to below normal. Once again, cannot rule out
an isolated light rain shower to form  By Friday afternoon, a bigger
shortwave will force that cold front through the area. Still not
sold on any high rain chances for the region, but if it does fall,
not looking at high rainfall totals. Moisture may be tall  Peak
totals likely will stay under a quarter inch for most locations.

Friday night, brief shortwave ridging will filter in behind those
systems, allowing for one 12 hour period with very low pops.
Clearing skies and relatively light winds will allow temperatures to
fall into the 40s, likely with some valley fog by daybreak.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 605 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2024

The models are in generally good agreement with the long wave
pattern through the majority of the period, although detail
differences concerning the smaller scale features decrease the
forecast confidence by the middle of next week. A short wave
trough will shift from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region to New
England, cutting off as it treks east through the weekend. An
accompanying surface cold front will push southeast, reinforcing
cooler across the Commonwealth into Sunday morning, as well as
bringing an uptick in rain chances (30-60%) during the day on
Saturday. The higher rain chances will be confined more towards
Ohio and West Virginia. 500 mb heights will recover over the Ohio
and Tennessee valleys Saturday night through Monday morning, with
dry weather expected. Meanwhile, another cutoff low will move
from the southern Plains/middle Mississippi Valley region through
the Ohio/Tennessee valleys through mid-week, bringing another
period of unsettled weather to eastern Kentucky from Monday
through Wednesday.

Rain chances could linger on Thursday as well, depending on how
quickly another progressive short wave trough moves in from the
southwest. The ECMWF is slower, and shows sharper short wave
ridging taking hold, while the GFS is weaker and exits the ridge
faster. This will be followed by an inbound short wave trough
stemming from a long wave trough moving over the central CONUS.
Given that the ensembles have generally trended lower with rain
chances for Thursday, have leaned that way as well, and undercut
the blended PoPs a bit. For temperatures, below normal readings
will be in place for this weekend, with highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s, and lows in the 40s. Temperatures will then trend warmer
next week, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s by Thursday,
and lows modifying through the 50s to around 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2024

Scattered cloud deck around 5 kft will slowly diminish with the
loss of daytime heating this evening. However, an approaching
system and cold front will approach from the northwest after
06z-12z Friday and begin to bring MVFR cigs and some scattered
shower activity through 18z Friday. Cigs improve by mid-afternoon
Friday as the system begins to depart to the east. Gusty west
winds early this evening will begin to diminish with the loss of
daytime heating. However, as the front approaches and then passes
Friday morning winds will become north-northwesterly to northerly
and increases to around 10 to 12 kts sustained with gusts as high
as 20 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...SHARP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMC