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000
FXUS63 KJKL 260832
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
432 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance of an isolated rain shower this afternoon. Otherwise,
  plenty of dry time expected.

-Becoming very warm this weekend into at least the middle of next
 week.

-Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially Monday
 night and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 429 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024

High pressure over the Northeast US is retreating in response to a
low emerging from the Lee of the Rockies. This low has a warm front
draped across the southeast US. The associated warm front is already
spreading plenty of high clouds through our area, and this will
generally be the case through the day. There is a very low chance of
isolated showers this afternoon. Very dry air in the low-levels (dew
point depressions of 20 degrees, even at this hour) will be hard to
overcome with forcing disjointed well to our northwest. Nonetheless,
for consistency, have maintained the low shower chance.

Ridging aloft amplifies Friday night through Saturday, marking the
start of a very warm stretch of weather. As a result, certainly no
frost concerns Friday night. The ridge axis overhead Friday night
would suggest a chance for some fog, but southerly flow of 10mph or
so will likely preclude this along with large dew point depressions.
Highs on Saturday will crack 80 degrees for most.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT THU APR 25 2024

A busy upper air pattern will be in place across the CONUS to
begin the extended portion of the forecast. A large and developing
trough of low pressure aloft will be taking shape over the mid
Rocky Mountain region and will be pushing slowly eastward over the
weekend. Another smaller but robust area of low pressure will be
bringing showers and storms to the middle of the country as it
moves northeastward into southeastern Canada the first half of the
weekend. As this system moves of to our north, a ridge of high
pressure will spread across the region over the upcoming weekend,
and will bring very warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky
during that time. Although there are some timing differences
amongst the various models, the general agreement is for high
pressure to dominate our weather this weekend and to bring much
warmer than normal temperatures to the area.

After a couple of days of dry weather, a strong area of low
pressure is forecast to intensify as it moves through the Great
Plains to end the weekend and into the first of the new work. A
vigorous upper level system will steer and help strengthen the
surface low as it moves our way. However, with a strong ridge of
high pressure still parked over the southeastern CONUS, the trough
to our west will still have a difficult time moving our way, as
the stubborn high will be slow to break down. The ridge should
finally break down and move far enough east to allow a weakening
cold front to push through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday
through Tuesday. This system will bring widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms to our area, especially from around dawn
Tuesday through early Tuesday evening, as the surface boundary
moves through. The models are showing enough instability for
thunderstorms to form, but with the front shearing out as its
parent low moves quickly northeast into Canada, there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding storm strength, as we`ll
continuing going with garden variety thunderstorms for our area
for now. Any storm might produce frequent lightning and brief
heavy downpours.

Temperatures will average well above normal through the extended,
with ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s each day. Nightly lows
will also be quite mild, and will range from the mid 50s to lower
60s. We will see a few nights with marginal conditions for ridge
valley temperature differences, and should see at least a hint of
this Saturday night and Sunday night, and again Tuesday night and
Wednesday night, as high pressure will be influencing our weather
during this time. Winds will increase a bit and become gusty early
next week, as strong low pressure moves by to our northwest and
north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024

Existing TAFs were in excellent shape; few to no changes. High
pressure in control, though a deepening low in the Central Plains
is spreading high clouds well east ward along the warm front. As
these features move north through the day clouds will increase
some and showers will dot the area, primarily toward KSYM very
late in the TAF period. However, a very dry forecast sounding
likely precludes rain reaching the ground. Thus, dry TAF
continues.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BROWN