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000
FXUS63 KLBF 180503
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1203 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Precipitation chances today and tonight

*Strong winds this evening into the overnight

*Cooler through the first part of the weekend

*Another chance for rain/snow Thu. night through Sat. morning

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A forecast update is in place to increase snow probabilities
across the Sandhills into the southern Panhandle through mid-
morning Thursday.

Latest observations and NDOT cameras depict snow in progress
across the Pine Ridge. While most if not all accumulations
should remain to grassy surfaces, some of this activity
overnight may be high enough intensity to lead to briefly slushy
accumulations on area roads. Latest RAP guidance shows
increasing h7 fgen as the main source of lift. With such strong
lift, dynamical cooling is allowing for this fairly early
transition to snow even with air temperatures remaining above
freezing. Overall, believe overnight lows will struggle to fall
much below freezing and with the quick warm up Thursday any
lingering snow will be quick to melt away.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

There are a couple of concerns in the short term. The
first being the potential for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and strong winds this evening into the
overnight. Precipitation chances will increase late this afternoon
across western Nebraska with the approaching front. There is the
potential for thunderstorm development across the southern Sandhills
into southwest Nebraska in the early evening and could event
potentially see an isolated threat for a severe storm, which would
mainly be for damaging wind gust, but could also see some small hail
with an outside chance of hail up to 1". Storms look to be elevated
in nature, but soundings do suggest there could be an environment
favorable for downburst or strong outflow within the strongest
storms. There will also be the chance for more moderate rainfall
across portions of north central Nebraska, extending back into
the central Sandhills, generally along and east of HWY 83.
Rainfall amount of 0.25 to 0.50" may be possible.


As for snowfall potential, did decrease precipitation chances
across the northern Sandhills after midnight across the
northwest Sandhills, which looks to confine most of the
precipitation across the northwest Sandhills to rain as
temperatures will generally main above freezing during the best
chance for precipitation, however a brief period of a rain/snow
mix can`t be ruled out, but do not expect any snowfall
accumulations.

The next concern is the winds this evening into tonight, strong
winds will move into the area behind the frontal boundary. Some
bufkit soundings are hinting there could be some good deep
layer mixing just ahead of the frontal push and could
potentially tap into some strong winds of 40 to 50kts that could
bring an isolated 50 mph wind gust or stronger to the sfc,
mainly across southwest Nebraska, generally south of I- 80, in
the early evening hours. As the front passes more widespread
stronger winds will be expected across southwest, north central
and portions of the central and southern Sandhills starting in
the mid evening hours, through the overnight. Probabilistic
models continue to increase winds during this time period with
the last several runs, thus forecaster confidence has increased
in seeing widespread wind gust of 30 to 40 mph, so have bumped
winds up to better account for this.

Cooler temperatures tonight and Thursday, weak CAA behind the
frontal boundary will bring in lows tonight in the upper 20s to mid
30s and keep highs on Thursday generally in the upper 40s to low
50s. Coldest temperatures will generally be across the northern
Sandhills.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The weather pattern will remain active to end the week
into the weekend with a couple of disturbances affecting the area.
After a brief lull in precipitation for Thursday, chances increase
into Thursday evening into Friday. A secondary push of colder air
will move in late Thursday and will see a better chance for a
rain/snow mix across the northwest Sandhills early Friday morning.
Although accumulations still look to be marginal, a light dusting
may be possible. For the rest of the area, precipitation will mainly
be in the form of light rain showers throughout the day, mainly for
areas west of HWY 281. At this time rainfall amounts Friday into
Saturday look to be light, generally around a tenth of an inch or
less.

A weak upper level ridge builds in across the west and will bring a
return to warmer temperatures with highs bouncing back into the
upper 50s to low 60s for Sunday and even some upper 60s to low 70s
by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Expansive MVFR and IFR ceilings are impacting area terminals as
a quick passing frontal boundary leads to widespread rain and
even snow. Coverage will continue to focus along a southwest to
northeast oriented line which will generally split the gap
between VTN and LBF. For now, have limited mention at VTN as
passing showers are likely the only impact will occur prior to
the period starting. Will cover with vicinity mention
thereafter. For LBF, will maintain a short window of -SHRA prior
to dawn Thursday. Can`t completely rule out a snowflake mixing
in but not expecting this to be prevailing for the better part
of an hour to warrant inclusion. Ceilings will improve towards
the afternoon Thursday with afternoon cumulus possible at VTN
but only VFR conditions expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NMJ
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NMJ