666
FXUS64 KLCH 291535
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1035 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The heavy rain threat is ending across the area, however light to
moderate rain will still linger through the next few hours in
Acadiana. The flood watch was cancelled with the threat ending,
but ongoing flooding is still occurring as water drains at some
locations that received excessive rainfall during the night.

A few minor tweaks will be made shortly in respect to timing,
however the forecast generally remains on target.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across north
portions of the area. Large swaths of precipitation totals 3 to 6
inches have already occurred with more rainfall to come. Shear
vectors aloft have aligned with the line, and combined with deep
moisture through 700 mb (as seen from 06Z RAOB), there will be
very little forward movement in the line in the next hours.

Where there is movement, expect strong wind gusts and isolated
tornadoes. Again, the main concern through the morning is flash
flooding, wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Expect a deeper dive
into the extended forecast later in the morning.

11/Calhoun

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)

Wx map shows surface high pressure off the East Coast and a low
pressure trough across the Central Plains southward to Central
Texas. Over our region, the pressure gradient is slowly relaxing,
allowing for winds to diminish for all areas except the immediate
coastal parishes. Thus, have trimmed back the Wind Advisory for SE
TX and the I-10 corridor of Southern Louisiana.

Minor coastal flooding continuing with values peaking between 1.5
to 1.8 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) earlier this morning
along the coast, and this afternoon across the Sabine and
Calcasieu basins. Considering the duration of these southeast
winds keeping tides 1-2 feet above astronomical tide over two days
now, sufficient infiltration into the marshes and low lying
coastal areas have likely occurred. Thus, will keep the ongoing
Coastal Flood Warning for Southern Jefferson & Orange Counties and
Cameron & Southern Calcasieu Parishes. Further east across
coastal Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes, tides reached
1.5 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during the times of high
tide. Thus, kept the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory. With
southeast winds expected to diminish before next high tide cycle,
lower tides are expected. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Warnings
and Advisories will not be reissued for Monday.

The approaching longwave mid to upper level trough over Central
Plains southward to Texas expected to move slowly as the
shortwave within the base of the trough ejects northeastward
through Monday. Showers and thunderstorms have reformed across
Central and Northeast Texas. This area is expected to move across
Northeast Texas this evening, with development further southwest.
This area is expected to either maintain or redevelop as an MCS into
the overnight hours through Monday morning. Severe weather will be
possible, with the greatest risk across Inland SE TX late this
evening/early Monday morning. SPC has Enhanced Risk for Tyler &
Northern Jasper, and Slight Risk for remainder of area into
Central and Southern Louisiana, expect Marginal Risk over Lower
Acadiana. All modes of severe weather will be possible. The other
item will be the expected rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with locally
higher amounts through Monday evening. This areal extent has
shifted southward, thus have extended the Flood Watch southward as
well to include all of Southeast Texas and along the I-10
corridor northward across Central and Southern Louisiana. Did not
include Lafayette parish and the remainder of Lower Acadiana as
the totals here at this time only ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches.

Expect lingering moisture and lift to generate scattered showers
and thunderstorms for Tuesday, with chances around 30-40%.
Otherwise, south to southeast winds and above normal temperatures
expected to continue.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Ample moisture will remain in the area during the mid to late week
period. No significant system is expected over the area Wednesday or
Thursday, however with the lack of any ridging locally and weak
disturbances aloft passing to the north, isolated to scattered
mainly diurnal showers and storms will be possible.

Friday into the weekend a weak front may move into the area. This
boundary may provide an uptick in coverage before washing out or
lifting back north late in the weekend.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A robust line of showers and thunderstorms continues to move
across the region. The worst conditions are along and just behind
the line with IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility.

Conditions are MVFR at AEX with rain and thunder expected to end
around 16Z. At BPT and LCH MVFR to IFR conditions will continue
until 18Z. At all of these terminals winds are from the north with
gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will decrease in the afternoon and
become northerly.

For ARA and LFT the line will arrive in the next hour or so with
IFR conditions along with gusty winds between 30 and 40 knots.
These conditions will continue through 20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  64  86  64 / 100   0  20  10
LCH  81  69  84  69 /  90   0  40  10
LFT  81  70  86  71 /  90  10  40  10
BPT  84  69  84  70 /  90  10  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ430-
     432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...14