Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 270000
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
700 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Performed a brief forecast update this evening, pulling in latest
short-range guidance thru overnight and into the day on
Wednesday. No major changes, as we`ll continue to see reinforcing
CAA continue to pull in from the north overnight. Winds will
remain elevated enough to counteract maximized radiational cooling
processes albeit clear skies but it`ll still be chilly with this
cooler continental airmass pushing deeper into the region. No
adjustments made to lows with many areas reaching the 40`s to
50`s.

During the day on Wednesday, we finally begin to see the main
positive-tilt longwave trough axis to our west advance our way,
with ample PVA rounding the trough pushing into the northern Gulf
states region. This will allow for an increase in downstream mid-
level ascent producing patchy altocumulus at around 10-15kft, all
above a strong subsidence inversion below to the LCL. Meanwhile,
we`ll mix out plenty at the surface with ongoing CAA underneath
all of this keeping things dry and breezy in the afternoon. Am
seeing the CAMs identify some elevated convection across NW/West-
central TX in association with very cold temperatures aloft +
surface heating to cause some hail issues that way, but dissipates
as we get into sunset before getting too far into Louisiana.
Highs were not modified in agreement with the day shifts idea of
compressional warming across coastal MS, with a nice day overall!
KLG

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Far less going on today than yesterday or what we were at least
preparing for. Once again last night the area seemed to be right
on the edge of the stronger forcing and thus storms struggled to
really get going. That said pretty sure no one is complaining that
tornadoes didn`t develop....OVERNIGHT. As the last bit of rain
moved out this morning we mostly saw sunny skies and comfortable
temperatures.

Over the next few days not too much to talk about however there are
some interesting forecast dilemmas if you look close enough. L/W
trough is still to our west and will not move quickly but finally
overnight Wednesday night it should push through and this will
finally drag the weak cold front across the area Wednesday night.
Slightly cooler air will move in but much drier air will filter in
behind that front. High pressure then settles in across the area
behind the front keeping things relatively quiet.

So what are the few little dilemmas; first is the max temperature
tomorrow and mainly over coastal MS and just across the Pearl River
into LA. Until the the sfc high can finally push south and drive the
cold front through late tomorrow we will see generally light
northerly to north-northeasterly winds tomorrow. Winds out of this
direction that occur most of the day over coastal MS typically
produce some locally enhanced down sloping/compressional heating.
While cooler air across the northwest will lead to highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s around MCB and BTR, locations across
coastal MS could climb into the upper 70s with PQL possibly trying
to touch 80. This isn`t extreme but for what may be a rather
benign day a temp gradient in the afternoon of around 12-15
degrees is not shabby when clouds, rain, or a strong front aren`t
involved.

The other small issue is more geared to the fire weather community
as much drier air does infiltrate behind the front Wednesday night.
Normally this is a bigger issue for the more defined fronts that may
not bring much in the way of cooler air but is accompanied by
stronger winds and a well defined wind shift along with likely drier
air than we will see with this front. Also it is usually a problem
the second day after the frontal passage with sunny skies and
maximized mixing. That said there does appear to be enough dry air
to get down here helping to drive the dewpoints down into the mid
30s to lower 40s. By midday highs in the lower to mid 70s should
lead to min RH values in the 20s.

Other than those two forecast issues the short term is quiet. In
fact the whole forecast is rather quiet with a warm and quiet Easter
weekend in store. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

As the east coast trough lifts northeastward, upper ridging will
build into the local area. However, it will be deamplifying as it
does. The northwest flow will maintain cool and dry conditions for
Friday.

As upper ridging builds into the area and the surface high shifts
eastward,  low level winds will turn onshore once again, leading to
a warming and moistening trend. Expect afternoon highs to rise into
the low to mid 80s by Sunday and possibly into the upper 80s in some
areas by Monday.

With only a 3-5 degree spread between high and low members of the
ECMWF ensemble, and about a 5-8 degree spread in the 10th and 90th
percentiles of the NBM, kept the forecast pretty close to the NBM
numbers through the end of the forecast period. Going into Tuesday
and midweek, though? Well, that`s a problem to start tackling
tomorrow. 95/DM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds
will remain at around 04 to 06kts tonight, increasing during the
mid/late morning and into the afternoon around 06-11kts bearing
350 to 010. CLR thru mid-morning, but could see mid-level clouds
around 10-15kft AGL especially for northern areas continuing
throughout the day, with no major impacts expected. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

On the marine front things will be quiet through tomorrow but
there may be a brief wind of SCS to SCY conditions mainly for the
open waters as the weak cold front finally tries to slide through.
High pressure will build down from the Plains tonight and tomorrow
with a weak sfc low moving from near the Yucatan through the
northeaster Gulf and off the coast of the Carolina`s Thursday.
Offshore winds will get a slight bump up in intensity Wednesday
night and through Thursday morning before high pressure finally
build into the northeastern Gulf and southeastern CONUS Friday
morning calming things back down with return flow beginning to set
back up late Friday. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  67  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  49  72  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  51  76  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  72  53  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  76  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  50  78  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KLG
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...CAB


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