Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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470 FXUS64 KLIX 011737 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1237 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 In the immediate term, we`re monitoring gradual development of areas of dense fog as evidenced by intermittent 1/4SM obs at Slidell Airport and scattered low clouds building down at MSY and NEW. Highest probabilities of dense fog are situated across coastal MS, Pearl River Basin, and along the Mississippi River basin where colder waters will locally enhance fog development. As a result, a dense fog advisory has been issued valid through 9 AM CDT. Dense fog should quickly burn off in the following hours after sunrise and temperatures will rapidly warm into the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. A solid 5-10F above normal areawide and nearing a record high at BTR and ASD. Daytime heating along with a bit more focused lift along a surface boundary near the Atchafalaya Basin will aid in bubbling up of some afternoon showers and storms around this area, but the lack of shear and large scale forcing should keep these in check and things will quiet down quickly toward sunset. Thereafter, our attention turns to the next approaching shortwave trough ejecting off the southern Rockies within the longwave west-southwesterly flow. This will aid in ample height falls sufficient for widespread convective development along the dryline in the Texas Hill Country this afternoon and evening. Latest CAM guidance is in general agreement that this convection will gradually organize into an MCS that will propagate east into southwest Louisiana late Wednesday night. Exact timing remains highly variable between CAM guidance in how they sustain/resolve the propagation of this feature. Given the shortwave trough does not surpass this convection until around 18z Thursday and ample moisture/instability exists ahead of it to help sustain it, this forecast hedges toward this MCS surviving and arriving into our area on Thursday morning. Severe weather impacts should be limited to gusty winds and locally heavy rain, similar to that of the line of storms that passed through on Monday, but will need to monitor the progress of this feature closely for changes here. .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 The general southwesterly flow through the mid-levels associated with a robust and persistent longwave troughing pattern over the western CONUS will keep us warm and more humid through the long range. While things stay busy across the central part of the country in this pattern, the majority of forcing and trough passages will remain to our north through this period keeping us mainly out of excessive rain and severe threats with not much in the way of PoPs beyond Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 The general southwesterly flow through the mid-levels associated with a robust and persistent longwave troughing pattern over the western CONUS will keep us warm and more humid through the long range. While things stay busy across the central part of the country in this pattern, the majority of forcing and trough passages will remain to our north through this period keeping us mainly out of excessive rain and severe threats with not much in the way of PoPs beyond Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Visible satellite shows a scattered CU field expanding from south to north across the local area. Although a couple sites had MVFR ceilings around noon, should see those lift to VFR within the next hour. The remainder of the day will be VFR with generally light southeasterly winds. Calmer winds expected overnight as well as the potential for the return of radiational fog. Intermittent low CIG/fog impacts are a possibility and thus have been added to the latest TAF issuance. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 We will be monitoring the progress of a line of storms tracking across southern Louisiana Thursday morning which could create gustier winds and higher seas than currently advertised in the forecast. Monitor the latest forecast for further updates if confidence increases for impacts. Otherwise, persistent southeast flow of around 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected through the weekend on the southwest periphery of a surface high dominating the Southeastern CONUS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 63 82 65 79 / 0 40 20 50 BTR 70 86 70 83 / 10 40 20 40 ASD 67 85 69 84 / 0 20 10 20 MSY 71 85 72 83 / 0 20 10 20 GPT 68 82 70 81 / 10 10 0 20 PQL 65 85 67 84 / 10 0 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJS LONG TERM....TJS AVIATION...ME MARINE...TJS