854
FXUS65 KLKN 062036
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
136 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A shortwave moves through later this afternoon
bringing isolated to scattered showers to northern Nevada. Colder
temperatures and gusty winds are in the forecast Tuesday, before
warm temperatures make a return by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Tuesday.

Current satellite shows mid-level clouds across portions of
northern and eastern Nevada, as a trough continues to progress
east, out of the region. Elsewhere, clear conditions have been
observed. Temperatures across the region currently range in the
upper 40s to mid 50s and are expected to climb into the mid 50s
to mid 60s later this afternoon. Some brief ridging has built
into the state in the departing troughs wake, however the ridge
is expected to be short lived as a short wave progresses across
Northern Nevada and southern Idaho this afternoon, and evening.
Instability is marginal across northern Nevada, however some
isolated to scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are
possible later this afternoon and evening across northern
portions of Humboldt and Elko counties, extending north into
Southern Idaho. High elevation snow showers will also be possible
with snow levels hanging around 6700 feet before falling below
6000 feet after midnight. Forecasted lows in this area are in the
20s, with elsewhere in the state seeing lows closer to the
freezing mark in the lower 30s. With snow levels dropping under
5000 feet by Tuesday morning, snow showers will likely fall
across much of Elko county. Accumulations of a trace to half an
inch is the most likely scenario, with higher elevation areas such
as the Ruby Mountains and the Jarbidge Wilderness Area seeing 1-4
inches of new snow, with locally higher amounts. Breezy westerly
winds will slowly diminish heading into the evening.


Tuesday, westerly winds will veer to a northwesterly direction and
pick up in intensity, as high pressure begins to build into the
Pacific Northwest effectively tightening the pressure gradient
over Nevada. While winds will be strong, they look to remain just
below advisory level condtions across much of the area.
Northwesterly winds of 25-30 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph are
probable. Higher peaks and exposed summits may see stronger
winds. Winds look to be strongest across portions of northern and
eastern Nevada. A special weather statement has been issued to
highlight these condtions. With the winds shifting to a
northwesterly direction, colder air will advect into the Silver
State, bringing highs down into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Light snow showers will linger across portions of northern Nevada
as snow levels remain around 4000 feet throughout the day. Snow
showers will generally range from a trace to under half an inch
for most areas that see snow showers. The exceptions again are the
Ruby Mountains and the Jarbidge Wilderness areas where another
2-4 inches could fall, with locally higher amounts at the highest
peaks. Tuesday night stands to be on the chillier side, with lows
in the mid 20s for many, with colder locations dipping into the
teens.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday

Generally quiet weather thru much of the period as a ridge of
high pressure influences the region mid to late next week. However
that being said, upper energy ejecting from Montana and moving
south is expected to create a cut off low over the American
southwest late in the week. This brings a low probability for
afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half
of the forecast area at least Thursday afternoon, possibly
subsequent days. PWATs are indicated to be less than ideal for
significant convection, and light showers and modest thunderstorms
will be relegated to the high terrain with occasional lightning
and gusty and erratic outflow winds the main concerns Thursday.
Temperatures expected to warm thru the long term period with
daytime highs reaching into the low 80s for some locales by
Sunday. Afternoon winds remain breezy thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION...Cold front begins moving into northern Nevada tonight
before midnight with VCSH, -SHRA, and -SHSN forecast at northern
terminals KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO beginning around 05Z Tuesday, and
lasting thru most of the morning. VCSH at KEKO is likely thru the
afternoon although most of the activity will remain north of the
terminal. Showers dissipate Tuesday evening. MVFR conditions are
forecast at times and brief periods of IFR may be possible under
stronger showers. Central Nevada terminals KTPH and KELY are
expected to remain dry. Breezy winds tonight and Tuesday with W-NW
gusts 20-25 knots or higher at all terminals.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks,
and rivers throughout northern and central Nevada due to seasonal
snow melt. Modest increases have been noted in faster responding
creeks and streams due to recent rainfall and snowfall. Increased
flows may additionally be noted on other streams and rivers over
the next several days. However, cool temperatures through the first
half of the week will continue to help mitigate high elevation
snow melt and subsequent runoff.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and
is forecast remain in action stage for the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus resides in minor flood stage and is
forecast to remain in minor flood stage for the next few days
while gradually decreasing. The river is forecast to fall into
action stage mid week.

Wildhorse Dam currently resides in action stage and is forecast
to remain in action stage for the next several days.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City resides near action stage.
The river is forecast to continue to range in and out of action
stage for the next several days.



&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

91/92/92