Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
854 FXUS65 KLKN 062036 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 136 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A shortwave moves through later this afternoon bringing isolated to scattered showers to northern Nevada. Colder temperatures and gusty winds are in the forecast Tuesday, before warm temperatures make a return by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Tuesday. Current satellite shows mid-level clouds across portions of northern and eastern Nevada, as a trough continues to progress east, out of the region. Elsewhere, clear conditions have been observed. Temperatures across the region currently range in the upper 40s to mid 50s and are expected to climb into the mid 50s to mid 60s later this afternoon. Some brief ridging has built into the state in the departing troughs wake, however the ridge is expected to be short lived as a short wave progresses across Northern Nevada and southern Idaho this afternoon, and evening. Instability is marginal across northern Nevada, however some isolated to scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening across northern portions of Humboldt and Elko counties, extending north into Southern Idaho. High elevation snow showers will also be possible with snow levels hanging around 6700 feet before falling below 6000 feet after midnight. Forecasted lows in this area are in the 20s, with elsewhere in the state seeing lows closer to the freezing mark in the lower 30s. With snow levels dropping under 5000 feet by Tuesday morning, snow showers will likely fall across much of Elko county. Accumulations of a trace to half an inch is the most likely scenario, with higher elevation areas such as the Ruby Mountains and the Jarbidge Wilderness Area seeing 1-4 inches of new snow, with locally higher amounts. Breezy westerly winds will slowly diminish heading into the evening. Tuesday, westerly winds will veer to a northwesterly direction and pick up in intensity, as high pressure begins to build into the Pacific Northwest effectively tightening the pressure gradient over Nevada. While winds will be strong, they look to remain just below advisory level condtions across much of the area. Northwesterly winds of 25-30 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph are probable. Higher peaks and exposed summits may see stronger winds. Winds look to be strongest across portions of northern and eastern Nevada. A special weather statement has been issued to highlight these condtions. With the winds shifting to a northwesterly direction, colder air will advect into the Silver State, bringing highs down into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Light snow showers will linger across portions of northern Nevada as snow levels remain around 4000 feet throughout the day. Snow showers will generally range from a trace to under half an inch for most areas that see snow showers. The exceptions again are the Ruby Mountains and the Jarbidge Wilderness areas where another 2-4 inches could fall, with locally higher amounts at the highest peaks. Tuesday night stands to be on the chillier side, with lows in the mid 20s for many, with colder locations dipping into the teens. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday Generally quiet weather thru much of the period as a ridge of high pressure influences the region mid to late next week. However that being said, upper energy ejecting from Montana and moving south is expected to create a cut off low over the American southwest late in the week. This brings a low probability for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the forecast area at least Thursday afternoon, possibly subsequent days. PWATs are indicated to be less than ideal for significant convection, and light showers and modest thunderstorms will be relegated to the high terrain with occasional lightning and gusty and erratic outflow winds the main concerns Thursday. Temperatures expected to warm thru the long term period with daytime highs reaching into the low 80s for some locales by Sunday. Afternoon winds remain breezy thru the period. && .AVIATION...Cold front begins moving into northern Nevada tonight before midnight with VCSH, -SHRA, and -SHSN forecast at northern terminals KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO beginning around 05Z Tuesday, and lasting thru most of the morning. VCSH at KEKO is likely thru the afternoon although most of the activity will remain north of the terminal. Showers dissipate Tuesday evening. MVFR conditions are forecast at times and brief periods of IFR may be possible under stronger showers. Central Nevada terminals KTPH and KELY are expected to remain dry. Breezy winds tonight and Tuesday with W-NW gusts 20-25 knots or higher at all terminals. && .HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks, and rivers throughout northern and central Nevada due to seasonal snow melt. Modest increases have been noted in faster responding creeks and streams due to recent rainfall and snowfall. Increased flows may additionally be noted on other streams and rivers over the next several days. However, cool temperatures through the first half of the week will continue to help mitigate high elevation snow melt and subsequent runoff. The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and is forecast remain in action stage for the next several days. The Humboldt River at Comus resides in minor flood stage and is forecast to remain in minor flood stage for the next few days while gradually decreasing. The river is forecast to fall into action stage mid week. Wildhorse Dam currently resides in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. The Owyhee River near Mountain City resides near action stage. The river is forecast to continue to range in and out of action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 91/92/92