635
FXUS66 KLOX 040055
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
555 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...03/153 PM.

Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through at least the
weekend as a weak storm system moves into California. Some light
precipitation is expected Saturday afternoon into very early
Sunday along with some gusty winds at times, mainly interior
areas. A warming and drying trend will develop next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...03/208 PM.

A late season storm is approaching California today and we`re
already feeling the effects of it in the form of a deeper and slow
clearing marine layer as well as much cooler temperatures. Models
have been quite consistent the last several runs indicating high
chances for rain north of Pt Conception starting Saturday
afternoon. The trajectory of the storm and the primarily westerly
low level flow isn`t as favorable a pattern for southern areas in
terms of rain but most areas should see at least some sprinkles or
light showers Saturday night. Ensembles continue to project around
a quarter inch northern areas, tapering down to a tenth or less in
the south. Most of the precip will be done before sunrise Sunday,
so most of Sunday will be dry with plenty of sunshine but still
cooler than normal with some breezy and conditions, especially
near the coast and in the mountains.

Monday will be much warmer as the storm moves into the Plains and
onshore flow weakens.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...03/217 PM.

The remainder of next week is expected to be fairly quiet with
a slow warming trend, mainly inland as California sits between a
low pressure system over the Great Basin and high pressure over
the eastern Pacific. Coastal area temperatures will be near normal
with possibly some increasing marine layer stratus by around mid
week. There is potential for more significant warming (again
mainly inland) next Friday into next weekend if the ridge over
the eastern Pacific shifts east into California as some models are
showing.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0054Z.

At 0000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2400 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4600 feet with a temperature of 19 degrees
Celsius.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAFs. MVFR CIGS
are forecast to arrive at all sites except KPRB, KPMD and KWJF
between 03Z-06Z. The CIGs are expected to linger through the
period as a storm system approaches the area, with -RA likely
after around 21Z north of Point Conception, and after 00Z-06Z
further south. There is a 30-40 percent chance that CIGs could
lift to VFR at any site between 18Z-00Z Saturday afternoon.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. MVFR CIGs are expected
by 03Z but the arrival time could be delayed by up to 2 hours.
There is a 30 percent chance that CIGs remain at MVFR level
between 23Z-03Z. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. For tonight, there is
a 30% chance that MVFR CIGs could arrive as early as 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...03/1238 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. For tonight, there is a 50-70% chance of Gale force
winds with the highest chances across PZZ670/673 and GALE WARNINGS
remain in effect. For Saturday through Wednesday, high confidence
in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas
with a 40-60% chance of Gale force winds Sunday and Monday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Wednesday, there
is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds with the strongest winds
during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, there is a
30-40% chance of Gale force winds Sunday and Monday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Saturday night through Sunday night, high confidence in
combination of SCA level winds and seas with a 30-40% chance of
Gale force winds Sunday and Sunday night, especially across
western sections. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 50-60%
chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels elsewhere.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox