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000
FXUS64 KMAF 230844
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
344 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

This afternoon sees the return of very warm temperatures across the
area as the mid-level ridge axis becomes centered overhead.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to be a good 5-10 degrees above
normal across the area, which translates to upper 80s to lower 90s
for the majority.

Isolated thunderstorms should also once again begin to enter the
picture for select locations. The first of these zones is expected
at the intersection of the nose of better moisture and the higher
elevations of the Stockton Plateau/Glass Mountains. One or two
thunderstorms may develop in this location and are expected to be
weak and high-based with modest low-level moisture and a lack of
stronger flow aloft. The second zone is at the intersection of an
approaching weak cold front sagging south through northwest Texas
with the dryline. A few thunderstorms may initiate along this zone.
These thunderstorms should be high-based once again as low-level
moisture remains modest but mid-level to upper-level flow should be
stronger across this zone. Though modest in quantity, effective
shear of ~30kts combine with very steep lapse rates ~8C/Km to
warrant a low-end severe risk. The main threats would be marginally
large hail and localized downburst winds with these thunderstorms.
Everything should slowly move east and gradually weaken around
sunset once daytime heating is lost.

Temperatures tonight remain very mild as return flow brings
increasing moisture back across much of the region. Many locations
see minimum temperatures only falling into the middle 50s to lower
60s. The mid-level ridge axis remains nearly stationary as we move
into Wednesday, resulting in nearly identical temperatures to today
for the area.

At this time, a very conditional threat of thunderstorms is
anticipated tomorrow afternoon. A few Hi-Res forecast models try to
initiate thunderstorms along the dryline across the Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos during the afternoon, though the consensus is
split. Convective temperatures should be reached and little to no
capping inversion is expected to be in place but forcing is going to
be nebulous. This lack of forcing puts a big question mark on the
likelihood of convective initiation. Regardless, any thunderstorms
that may develop could be severe as lapse rates remain steep, ~7-
8C/Km, and mid-level to upper-level flow continues to slowly
strengthen resulting in ~40 kts of effective shear. A high-based
supercell or two may eventually develop and pose a threat of large
hail and localized damaging winds.

Now is as good a time as any to remember to be prepared for
thunderstorms and severe weather. Our region is beginning to enter
its climatological peak for severe weather so this threat is going
to generally continue over the coming month or so.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Wednesday night, an upper trough will make landfall in SoCal,
leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow
aloft.

Thursday, leeside surface troughing on the Front Range will induce
westerly flow out on the higher terrain, will high winds developing
in the Guadalupes and Delawares during the afternoon.  This could be
a long-fused event, potentially lasting through Sunday, and we`ve
mentioned this in the HWO.  This will sharpen up a dryline over the
eastern CWA during the afternoon.  To the west of this, critical
fire weather conditions are likely as 20-ft winds increase RFTIs,
along with single-digit min RH.  Convection will be possible along
the dryline, w/forecast soundings suggesting a hail/wind threat
during the afternoon and evening.  Downslope warming will maintain
thicknesses, keeping afternoon highs well above normal, as the
latest NAM suggests the Pac front will arrive After sundown.

Friday, highs will come down a little in the wake of the Pac front,
but still remain AOA normal.  Winds will come down a little, but
still be high enough in places to combine with area-wide critical RH
to maintain fire weather concerns.  A secondary trough is forecast
to dig down the west coast, maintaining progressive zonal flow aloft
over the region, keeping winds high in the Guadalupes/Delawares.

Saturday, the secondary trough ejects through the southwest CONUS,
with long-range models differing on the speed/track with which this
happens.  Cluster analysis suggests the GFS has the best handle on
it, which puts the trough at the Four Corners around 18Z Saturday.
W/this timing, Saturday is gonna be a windbag.  Given expected low
RH between now and then soils from recent rains will be bone dry by
Saturday, so widespread BLDU will be possible.  A 70+kt 500mb jet is
forecast to intersect the LLTR over Southeast New Mexico, making
Saturday the most critical fire weather day this forecast.  We`ve
started messaging this in the HWO.  W/the arrival of a Pac front,
highs Saturday will come down a little closer to normal.

Sunday, winds will come down in the wake of the exiting trough, and
this looks to be the coolest day this forecast as afternoon highs
come in right around normal.  Near-critical fire weather conditions
will persist, mainly due to cratered RH.  Monday, temperatures begin
increasing again under ridging/southwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Winds should generally remain southeasterly overnight. Western
terminals are expected to develop a westerly wind by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               89  59  88  66 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 93  54  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   86  61  90  67 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            93  58  93  65 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           84  59  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    89  52  87  61 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    86  50  88  53 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     89  59  89  66 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                   90  60  89  67 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                     93  57  92  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...91