Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 211742
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

As a welcomed surprise, the track of the main trough across the
southern Great Plains continues to be a bit slower and further
south than anticipated. This has allowed for lingering showers
across much of the northern and eastern Permian Basin early this
morning. While this activity is gradually coming to an end, at
least an isolated shower threat lingers across northern portions
of the area through the late morning and early afternoon. Heading
through the afternoon hours, temperatures warm into the 70s across
much of the region, except across portions of the northeastern
Permian Basin where showers and clouds linger the longest keeping
these locations in the 60s. As the main trough axis finally comes
overhead this afternoon, the very cold air aloft helps destabilize
the atmosphere and additional shower and thunderstorm development
is expected by mid- afternoon. It appears likely that a loosely
organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms can be anticipated
across the northeastern Permian Basin, directly under the upper
trough axis. Additional activity is possible along an advancing
westerly wind shift across eastern portions of the area extending
down into the Stockton Plateau. Everything gradually weakens and
exits to the east this evening. Skies begin to clear overnight and
temperatures fall into the 40s to low 50s for the majority.
Quieter weather is in store for Friday as surface high pressure
slides into the region. Sunny skies and a downsloping westerly
wind pushes temperatures even higher than this afternoon despite
the post-frontal airmass. Middle 70s to low 80s are in store for
most for a warm and beautiful Friday.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Saturday a weak and broad upper ridge transits the area ahead of a
deepening upper trough over the western United States. A strong
upper jet becomes positioned over the CWA as the trough sags south
increasing surface winds on Sunday with windy conditions expected
everywhere and strong winds possible in the Guadalupe Mountains
and immediate adjacent plains. These dry, westerly winds will help
sharpen a dryline that could serve as a focus for convective
development in the eastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling
Plains late Sunday afternoon. A few of these storms could become
severe but a rapid eastward movement should quickly see convection
moving east of the area by late in the evening.

Westerly winds continue on Monday but lower heights aloft from the
arrival of the upper trough will bring in cooler temps with highs
only reaching the 60s. A weak cold front also arrives but is so
shallow models show it struggling to even extend west up onto the
Caprock of West Texas so it is unlikely we see any cooling from
it. Westerly flow continues into the middle of next week and
though this downsloping wind usually gives us above normal
temperatures, heights aloft remain anomalously low so temperatures
will struggle to get back up to normal for this time of year.
Enjoy the pleasant weather.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Winds are somewhat
variable at issuance due to morning showers, but will shift to the
west at all terminals this afternoon, becoming elevated and at
least intermittently gusty. Another round of showers/thunderstorms
is possible late this afternoon and early evening, but activity
should remain to the east of MAF. Thus, will monitor and amend if
needed. Winds will become lighter after sunset, shifting to the
northwest at all terminals through Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               44  78  47  75 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 49  80  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   53  85  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            53  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           47  72  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    44  78  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    41  74  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     45  78  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   47  78  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     48  82  51  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...84


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