462
FXUS64 KMAF 061722
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The pleasantly cool day that we experienced yesterday is now only
a memory, with the start of a significant warming trend today
that will see above normal temperatures return areawide,
continuing through midweek. Per latest water vapor imagery and RUC
analysis, a deepening trough is currently translating eastward
from the Great Basin toward the Central Rockies, beginning to
develop a subtle negative tilt. This trough has deepened a bit
more than previously indicated by model guidance, and while the
core of the trough`s attendant jet remains to the north of the
area, speeds around 50kt at 700 hPa are expected to result in high
winds across the Guadalupe Mountains, evidenced by the
development of a mountain wave signature by late this morning.
Unlike other wind events, these winds will largely be isolated to
the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains and Guadalupe
Pass, with potential gusts at the highest elevations reaching
70-75 mph. Thus, a High Wind Warning has been issued for the
Guadalupe Mountains today, and while breezy conditions are
expected elsewhere, wind speeds are currently expected to remain
below advisory criteria.

The southwesterly to westerly winds today will yield a quick
rebound to above normal temperatures, with sunny skies expected
areawide by lunch time. Compressional warming with full insolation
will allow temperatures to top out in the upper 80s and 90s for
most, with triple digits returning along the Rio Grande in the Big
Bend. As the aforementioned trough swings into the northern
Plains tonight, zonal flow aloft will persist over Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas, and given a majority of low-level moisture
will be shunted to the east and southeast, lows tonight will drop
into the upper 40s northwest to 60s southeast in response to the
drier air filtering into the region. Another warm day is ahead
Tuesday, with highs similar to today, albeit a degree or two
warmer in some spots, topping out in the upper 80s and 90s once
again, with lower 100s along the Rio Grande.

The forecast through the short term is dry, and unfortunately,
the return of very dry conditions, above normal temperatures, and
increased winds will also yield near critical and critical fire
weather conditions. Fire weather concerns are greatest for areas
that missed out on beneficial rainfall over the past week or two,
mainly from Southeast New Mexico south to the Davis Mountains. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect for these areas today, and a Fire
Weather Watch on Tuesday, discussed further in the Fire Weather
Discussion below.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Quasi-zonal flow and subtle mid-level ridging continue Tuesday
night through Thursday, with highs and lows warmer than average
for early May, with sunny skies and westerly downsloping winds
each afternoon. High winds in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains
as well as the surrounding foothills are possible both Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons. The upper low that lifted into the
northern Great Plains at the beginning of the week will merge with
a trough entering the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will lead to the trough dividing into two lobes of
vorticity, with one of these being an open trough across the Great
Lakes and the other being an upper low meandering over the Great
Basin. As this occurs and the trough over the Great Lakes moves
east, a surface cold front will be pushed south through the area
on Thursday. Highs fall several degrees below average north of the
cold front, with highs remaining a few degrees warmer than
average south of the front. The front clears the area by Friday
with below average highs and lows and easterly flow continuing
into next week, albeit with a warming trend beginning Sunday. The
upper low over the Great Basin will transition upper flow to
southwesterly across the southern Great Plains by Sunday, allowing
for development of lee troughing, and southeasterly surface winds
east of lee troughing advecting in increased moisture. Around the
upper low over the Great Basin, disturbances may propagate into
the Great Plains, providing lift for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms over portions of the area. However, synoptic and
mesoscale details this far out could change, so we are leaving out
any further mention of rain until there is better agreement
regarding position, strength, and track of disturbances and
magnitude of moisture return.

Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights will be warmer than average and
in the 60s aside from 50s in the higher elevations and
northernmost SE NM plains and Permian Basin. Widespread 90s and
80s in the higher elevations are forecast Wednesday with triple
digits readings near the Rio Grande. On Thursday, highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s north of the cold front are expected, with
highs remaining in the 90s, 80s in higher elevations south of the
front. Friday will likely be the coolest day of the long term,
with highs in the 70s and 80s, and 90s confined to along the Rio
Grande. Friday night will feature lows in the 50s as far south as
the Rio Grande valleys, with 40s in the highest elevations across
West Texas and northernmost portions of the area also possible.
Saturday remains cooler than average but with more widespread 80s.
Lows Saturday night will be similar to Friday night but with more
southeasterly rather than easterly winds bringing lows closer to
normal. Sunday highs will be even warmer than Saturday although
still a few degrees below normal, and similarly Monday highs will
be warmer than Sunday and near normal. Lows Sunday night and
Monday night will be similar to Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Elevated west
winds develop this afternoon with the strongest winds out west.
Winds weaken after sunset this evening, becoming more
northwesterly overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Recent wetting rains over the western Permian Basin to the Davis
Mountains and east of the Pecos River have helped to reduce ERCs
in these regions. However, ERCs at or above the 70th percentile
and critically dry fuels persist west of the Pecos River due to
lack of recent wetting rains west of the Pecos River. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect this afternoon through this evening for the
Sacramento Foothills, SE NM plains, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains,
Davis Mountains Foothills, Culberson County, and upper Trans
Pecos due to widespread min RH as low as 5 percent, sustained
westerly winds above 20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph and higher in
the higher elevations, mostly sunny skies, above normal
temperatures in the 80s and 90s, and RFTIs of 5 to 7. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for Tuesday for the same areas today`s
Red Flag Warning covers. Critical fire weather conditions are
likely for westernmost portions of the area through Thursday as
min critical RH, poor overnight recovery, above normal
temperatures, and gusty, westerly, downsloping winds continue.

A cold front moving in from the north Thursday will reduce fire
risk north of the front, with fire risk continuing over higher
elevations of West Texas south of the front. Behind the front
Friday, better overnight recovery, increased moisture and clouds,
and cooler temperatures will limit fire risk everywhere into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               55  93  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 53  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   64  98  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            60  95  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           55  83  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    50  91  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    48  88  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     56  93  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   57  93  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     55  95  61  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...91