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000
FXUS64 KMEG 160507
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1207 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Windy weather will develop on Tuesday as a cold front approaches
the region. Scattered to numerous storms will develop late
Tuesday afternoon and continue into Tuesday night. Some storms may
be severe mainly across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. A few more storms are possible, mainly across northwest
Tennessee, as the cold front moves into the region Wednesday
afternoon. The front will slowly push across the region into the
weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing and
temperatures turning cooler.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Low level moisture is on the increase across the Mid-South as
persistent southerly flow continues across the region. Surface
dewpoints have climbed well into the 60s and a substantial CU
field has developed. Winds are lighter than yesterday thanks to a
temporary weakening of the gradient. More cloud cover SW of
Memphis has resulted in slightly cooler temps across NW MS where
readings are in the mid and upper 70s compared to the lower to mid
80s from the Bootheel to the TN River.

A mild night is on tap across the Mid-South with lows in the 60s.
A weak shortwave combined with steady warm air advection will
result in a few late night light showers. A deep 500 mb low
pressure system will pivot across KS overnight and become
vertically stacked as it moves toward the Upper MS Valley on
Tuesday. An increasing pressure gradient will result in wind gusts
to 40 mph across NE AR and the MO Bootheel Tuesday afternoon. A
Wind Advisory has been issued from noon Tuesday through Midnight
Tuesday night. A fairly broad plume of moisture and instability
will surge north ahead of a dryline that will move into NW AR and
SW MO Tuesday afternoon. Shear will increase late in the day as a
weakening 500 mb jet streak pushes across southern MO. Though
this feature is weakening it should still provide enough lift to
trigger storms within the moist and increasingly unstable
corridor across AR. A few of the most recent CAMs indicate the
possibility of storms triggering late in the afternoon. The severe
threat with those initial storms may be muted as the parameter
space looks quiet marginal initially with some CIN. The better
chances for severe weather appear to a little later in the
evening, after 00z, when MLCAPES climb above 1000 J/kg west of the
MS River. Forecast soundings indicate looping hodographs with
0-1km helicity values increasing to over 200 m2/s2 and 0-6km bulk
shear values over 50 kts. Storm mode will favor semi-discrete
cells within a broken line. All modes of severe weather are
possible. Best chances appear to be across NE AR and the MO
Bootheel. As storms head east the of the MS River around midnight
the instability will weaken and the upper support races
northeast. Expect the intensity to wane by 08z and exit the region
by sunrise.

The main upper low will push into the Great lakes on Wednesday.
The associated cold front will push into the region Wednesday
afternoon. The airmass across the Mid-South will become quite
unstable as temps warm well into the 80s. SBCAPEs will climb above
2000 J/kg and enough shear will be present to support severe
storms if they are able to develop along and ahead of the cold
front. That is not a sure thing attm. If storms are able to
develop the best chances for severe weather will be across NW TN.

The front will stall across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday with relatively quiet, warm weather. The next interesting
feature is Thursday night as 12z models depict a potential MCS
developing across SW MO and dropping into the Mid-South. This
bears watching and could represent a least some potential for
strong to severe storms as there is some instability to work with.
This MCS will push the front south, or mostly south of the region
with cooler temps. Unfortunately, an active southern stream may
result in upper level disturbances overrunning this front
resulting in rain chances continuing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions and mainly dry conditions will persist through
late afternoon tomorrow. Scattered SHRAs will move into the
western TAF sites by early evening as a cold front approaches from
the west. The highest chance of TSRAs will be at JBR with PROB30
carried at MEM and MKL.

Strong southerly winds will persist in the afternoon, subsiding
after sundown. IFR and possibly LIFR CIGs will build in behind the
passing frontal boundary.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight CDT Tuesday night
     for ARZ009-018-026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight CDT Tuesday night
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight CDT Tuesday night
     for TNZ001.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AC3