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000
FXUS63 KMPX 250619
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
119 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Friday`s system brings widespread rain and gusty winds to the region.
  The heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Friday
  night.

- There is a Marginal severe threat for overnight convection along
  the I-90 corridor in southern MN.

- A break in the active weather is anticipated Saturday, with another
  strong system expected to bring additional widespread rain on
  Sunday.

- A more Summer-like warmth expected to start May, with an
  active weather pattern expected across the central CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... GOES visible imagery highlights numerous
smoke plumes spread across the Upper Midwest and a few fair weather
Cu this afternoon. Winds remain light and somewhat variable this
afternoon, but they should feature some southerly element at the
surface. Enjoy the light winds while you can because the gales of
April return from their brief break on Thursday, likely sticking
around through the upcoming weekend. Highs today will be in the 60s
with a 50s in W Wisconsin. Lows tonight remain in the mid 30s to mid
40s or about 10 degrees warmer than this morning. There is a non-
zero threat of frost in west-central Wisconsin from roughly Eau
Claire/Chippewa/Rusk counties. Thursday`s shaping up to be another
breezy day with winds ramping up out of the south-southeast.
Sustained at 15 to 20mph with gusts up to 35mph are forecast. This
will cause another day with elevated fire weather conditions as
MinRH values drop into the 30 to 35% range Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures will warm into the mid 60s with increasing cloud cover
throughout the day. Thursday night`s lows will remain on the warmer
side, in the 40s and lower 50s, with increasing PoPs by Friday
morning.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... The previous trends continued in the 12z
guidance. Friday`s system will arrive later, and produce less
rainfall across the region. Timing appears to the be the culprit
with frontal boundaries moving through Friday night vs Friday
afternoon. This means we`ll see more decaying convection that`ll
taper off through Saturday morning. Fortunately, we`ll still see
widespread amounts between a half inch to an inch Friday afternoon
through Friday night. Temperatures will be in the 50s with gusty SE
winds sustained 20mph gusting upwards of 35mph Friday afternoon.
It`ll be a great Spring day to stay inside if possible, but it could
always be worse [snow]. Saturday will be the "break" day between
systems and looks fairly pleasant. Winds decrease some and a few
peaks of sunshine are possible across portions of S MN and W WI.
Temperatures warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday night will
see PoPs begin to creep back up ahead of Sunday`s system. It`s
interesting to compare the trend with Friday`s system vs the trend
in Sunday`s. We`ve seen Sunday`s system trend wetter over the past
24 hours. This low appears to be the stronger of the two systems and
should bring another 0.50" to 1" or more across the region. If you
combine both systems a widespread 1 to 2" with the chance for some
pockets of localized 3 to 4" possible. We`ll also have to keep an
eye on the timing for Sunday. Latest guidance brings enough of the
warm through S MN that we could see thunderstorms along I-90 Sunday
PM. Some severe storms may be plausibly if this system takes a more
favorable low track.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Beyond the weekend washout, we`ll see
temperatures briefly cool down and dry out to end April. This trend
doesn`t last long as much warmer weather pattern will be on deck for
early May. This pattern also appears favorable for active weather
across the central Plains to kick off May, but likely remains far
enough south to limit our concern locally for now. Temperatures will
trend toward the mid 70s for highs on Wednesday with warmer weather
continuing beyond the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Strong warm advection across SoDak is resulting in the cloud
cover we see spilling across MN, though very dry atmosphere in
place means most of the returns we are seeing on radar are just
virga and that will continue to be the case through the day
today. Main issue today is southeast winds will start getting
quite breezy again, especially the farther west you travel in
MN. Tonight, we will start to see -SHRA push across MN, though
given the dry air in place, followed the slower timing of models
like the RAP & HRRR for bringing precip into the area, which
means rain looks to hold off at most terminals through the 6z
TAF period. Even if rains move in faster than forecast, cigs
will remain VFR this period.

KMSP...At the tail end of this period (12z Fri) we will see
-SHRA pushing into the metro. Introduced some -shra at 10z Fri
 to account for that potential, though even that could be too
 quick to bring rain in.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind SE 20-25G35 kts.
SAT...MVFR. -SHRA likely early and overnight. Chc IFR/TS
      overnight. Wind SW 15-20 kts becoming NW.
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA, chance IFR/TS. Wind NE 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG