Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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061 FXUS63 KMPX 261927 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 227 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected tomorrow with a few stronger storms possible across far southern Minnesota. - Things will remain fairly quiet with seasonable temperatures with the next chance for widespread rain arriving late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Today`s rain has largely failed to materialized across the MPX CWA, with only a couple hundredths of rain recorded through early this afternoon, mainly over far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A surface low centered over extreme northeast Iowa and its associated cloud shield have led to a decent temperature spread with upper 50s and low 60s under the cloud cover to low to mid 70s in western Minnesota. Looking at satellite, a boundary is evident across west central Minnesota up through the Arrowhead. A couple of isolated showers may develop along this boundary through late this afternoon, but the remaining rain chances area wide through this evening are low. However, PoPs will ramp back up overnight with an approaching shortwave through the day tomorrow. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible during the late morning and afternoon with the highest chance across southern Minnesota. Severe chances are slim, but a few damaging wind gusts are possible with any stronger storms. QPF totals will range from around a quarter to a half inch through Monday evening. Heading into Tuesday, a second shortwave will once again bring shower chances to eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts with this round will be very light before we dry out for mid week. Temperatures will be on the cooler side Tuesday (low to mid 60s) and gradually warm into the mid to upper 70s for the remainder of the period as a ridge builds in. The next chance for rain will arrive Thursday afternoon with continued low PoPs into at least the first half of the weekend. Minnesota and Wisconsin will end up on the western periphery of the ridge Thursday through Saturday with embedded shortwaves responsible for these continued chances. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 While KMSP and KRNH may see some lingering sprinkles through the afternoon, much of the rain will stay east, with only KEAU to worry about periods of lighter rain through the early evening. A broad area of cu has developed around 2000-3000 feet across central Minnesota, otherwise most sites will stick with VFR cigs throughout the period. A period of mostly clear skies is likely overnight as our current system passes east, making way for the another potential rain-maker tomorrow morning. An extended period of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms looks likely from tomorrow morning through the evening, starting in the west and extending eastward throughout the late morning. Confidence is low on the exact timing and intensity of isolated TS, so have kept mention out for now. Winds will stay out of the NE, with some spots gusting into the teens, through this evening. Calm winds are expected overnight, as they shift more N/NW into the morning. KMSP...A thin line of weak radar reflectivity returns is currently passing over the Twin Cities metro, which will likely provide the last sign of precip for the day at KMSP. Mostly clear skies overnight will give way to another round of showers tomorrow morning, with the potential for some isolated storms in the afternoon. The best environment for storm development looks to be centered over SW Minnesota, but if any were to extend as far east as the metro the main concern would be brief periods of stronger downdrafts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. WED...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...BED