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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250721
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
321 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Borderline elevated fire weather conditions today as
  relative humidity drops to 20-25 percent across much of the
  area. Winds remain light enough, gusts mostly under 15 mph, to
  hold conditions at borderline.
- Two low pressure systems, one this weekend and another into
  early next week, bring an unsettled pattern. A brief period
  for severe weather is possible Saturday into Saturday night,
  however confidence remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

It`s a quiet, chilly early morning across Upper MI with broad sfc
high pres encompassing the Great Lakes region. Under very light or
calm winds, clear skies and a dry air column (precipitable water 35-
55pct of normal) to further aid radiational cooling, temps currently
range thru the 20s to 30 F. Most of the traditional cold spots are
down into the mid and upper teens F. As of 07z, The Stonington RAWs
and the new Stanley RAWS site in far northern Schoolcraft County are
coldest at 13F.

Low amplitude mid-level ridging over the Plains into
Manitoba/adjacent Ontario this morning will drift e today. Axis of
the ridge will reach Upper MI tonight. Associated sfc high pres
ridge will also drift e today, extending across central and southern
Quebec back into the Great Lakes region by evening. End result is a
dry day with abundant sunshine. Expect high temps ranging thru the
50s, but into the lwr 60s F over portions of the w. Temps will be
cooler locally along the Great Lakes, especially where onshore wind
component develops earliest. Dry column will result in mix down of
drier air as boundary layer builds under full solar insolation. This
leads to RH falling to 20-25pct over a large portion of Upper MI
today. With axis of high pres ridge to the e, southerly winds will
be the rule, but the winds will develop an easterly component along
Lake Superior as lake breeze component backs the wind. With the low
RH expected, winds, fortunately, will remain on the lighter side
with sustained winds increasing to around 10mph and gusts mostly
under 15mph. Any gusts above 15mph should occur mainly into portions
of Delta and eastern Marquette County as Lake MI lake breeze surges
n in the aftn. As a result, borderline elevated fire weather
conditions are expected today.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW, a
shortwave in the central Rockies, and a ridge across the Mississippi
Valley into the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. This shortwave gets
kicked out into the central plains 12z Fri and becomes negatively
tilted by 00z Sat. This shortwave moves into the upper Great Lakes
12z Sat as the Pacific NW trough dives into the southern Rockies.
The shortwave still affects the upper Great Lakes on Sat through 00z
Sun and then the trough in the southern Rockies heads northeast into
the northern and central plains 12z Sun. Deeper moisture and 850-500
mb q-vector convergence arrives by 00z Sat over the far west and
spreads across the area through 12z Sun. Slowed down pops on Fri
further and even into Fri evening as model trends continue to delay
the onset of pcpn. Antecedent dry airmass over the area would also
argue that low levels will take a while to saturate with a dry
southeast flow, so this would argue again to delay pops on Fri.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb trough over
the Rockies and plains 12z Sun with a shortwave that heads northeast
and negatively tilts into the upper Great Lakes by 12z Mon. This
shortwave heads northeast into Ontario 12z Tue. Upper ridging sets
up over the plains 12z Wed and becomes more amplified with time 12z
Thu. Active and wet pattern continues this forecast period. Tue does
look to be the driest day along with Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Clear skies prevail through the forecast period as high pressure
remains over the area. Light winds overnight become southerly
at IWD and SAW this morning as the high pressure shifts east.
East-southeasterly winds prevail at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep winds below 20 kts into
this evening. Southeast winds will increase to around 20 kts tonight
with southeast/east to 20-30 kts Friday and Friday night; the
strongest winds are expected along the U.S. Canadian border waters
of eastern Lake Superior. The low pressure then tracks northeast
across the lake late in the day Saturday into Saturday night
resulting in 20-30 kt north winds Saturday night becoming northeast
on Sunday behind the low pressure system. Northeast winds remain
around 20-30 knots through Sunday night with a few gale force gusts
to 35 knots possible near Isle Royale and across the west half of
Lake Superior. Another low pressure system moves through the Upper
Great Lakes Monday into Monday night with winds up to 30 knots
yielding west winds behind the low that are expected to diminish
back below 20 kts by Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...07